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Your AM Global Stocks Preview and a whole lot more news that you need to read: Global stocks are dropping following economic contraction in two of the world’s largest economies
Global stocks are mixed this morning with European stocks dropping on weak German GDP and US stocks little changed
US stocks index futures are little changed this morning, pointing to a flat open in NY with Dow Jones minis +0.02%, S&P500 minis +0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 minis –0.16%
Bloomberg reports that the US will hold off from imposing new tariffs on auto imports, putting a bid into international auto stocks today
Larry Kudlow, the Director of the US National Economic Council for US President Trump, confirms that the US and China have restarted their discussion on trade at “all levels”
US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to give a speech today at the Dallas Federal Reserve – traders are expecting Fed Chair Powell to give some clarity into the trajectory of interest rate increases going forward
The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 20.59 after closing at 20.02 yesterday
General Electric (GE) December 21 OTM Calls, USO December 21 & January 2019 OTM Puts, EWZ November 16 OTM Puts and EEM November 16 OTM Calls are the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market
US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -0.37 basis points to 3.136%
The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.37 basis points to 0.24%
WTI Crude is currently down -7.07% to USD$55.69/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$7.86 to USD$9/bbl
Gold is currently little changed -0.18% to USD$1200.06/oz
Global oil prices appear to be dismissing US President Trump’s pushback against Saudi Arabia’s suggestion to cut production by 1 million barrels a day as Reuters reports that OPEC is now considering a cut of 1.4 million barrels
Stocks Trending in the News
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Amazon (AMZN) will see the first protest in New York City today over its new campus planned for Long Island City in Queens. Some local politicians want guarantees from Amazon that it will do all it can to benefit the citizens of Queens and plan to demand that today. They complain that the area cannot handle 25,000 new people, especially given the state of the subways, saying Amazon is building a helipad while residents are stuck with overcrowded trains. Amazon is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
Apple (AAPL) was downgraded at Guggenheim today to neutral from buy. The note cites supply chain cuts and the lower deliveries of phones it implies. Apple was also had its price target lowered at UBS to USD$225, also citing supply chain concerns. Apple is rated “Attractive” in both our US Large-Cap and US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
Caterpillar (CAT) was maintained as a buy at Credit Suisse in a note to clients. Caterpillar’s price target was updated to USD$183 as well. Caterpillar saw October machines sales rise 18%, this follows a 21% rise in September. Caterpillar is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
Bloomindale's, a unit of Macy's (M), is adding high end appliances to its store in New York City. Bloomingdale's is following other retailers in adding appliances to its offerings. The Macy's unit will offer USD$7,000 refrigerators from LG and washing machines that automatically figure out how much soap is needed. Bloomindale's hopes to spark sales by adding the new products. Macy's is rated "Neutral" in both our US Large-Cap and US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
Merck (MRK GR) cut its full year adjusted ebitda forecast while raising its net sales guidance. Merck expects full year adjusted ebitda 3.7-3.9 billion euros, down from 3.75-4 billion euros. Merck now expects organic net sales to grow 4-6%, up from 3-5%. Merck said adverse forex effects will lower adjusted ebitda by 8-10%. Merck is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
Tata Motors (TTMT IN) had its outlook cut to negative from stable at Moody’s Investors Service. Tata Motors saw the cut due to weakness expected at its Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc over the next 12-18 months. Tata Motors had its rating reaffirmed at Baa2. Tata Motors is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
Tencent (700 HK, TCEHY) reported 3Q net income that beat the highest estimates. Tencent reported net income of 23.33 billion yuan while 18.39 billion as consensus. Tencent 3Q revenue of 8.6 billion yuan was in line with 80.41 billion yuan expected. Tencent saw 3Q online gaming revenue of 25.8 billion yuan, online advertising revenue of 16.2 billion and smart phone gaming revenue of 19.5 billion yuan. Tencent is rated “Attractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Picks.
Wirecard (WDI GR) shares are sliding despite raising guidance. Wirecard raised its operating profit forecast and investors have not been impressed. Morgan Stanley noted the increased guidance “a minor positive” given that most estimates were already above that. Wirecard entered the DAX in September. Wirecard is rated “Attractive” in our European Large-Cap Global top Stock Idea.
European stocks are declining to start the morning, though they are bouncing off their early AM lows
The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.53%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.04%, the DAX has fallen -0.46%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.52%
GDP for Germany contracted 0.2% Q/Q in 3Q, the first contraction since early CY2015 as the impact of new emissions tests disrupted auto production
UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to convince members of the UK Parliament to support her BREXIT deal
GDP for the Eurozone grew +0.2% Q/Q in 3Q, in-line with market forecasts and at the same pace as 2Q
Italian stocks (and bonds!) are dropping this morning following news that the “populist” Italian government is refusing to budge on their CY2019 budget amidst rising pressure from EU officials
Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.71x
Oil & Gas (-1.31%), Telecommunications (+0.37%), and Basic Resources (-2.45%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
Automobiles & Parts (+1.14%), Food & Beverage (-0.24%), and Utilities (+0.7%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
56 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 53 stocks are at 4-week lows
16 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 27 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 17.81 after closing at 17.03 yesterday
EUR€ is currently down -0.186% against the USD$ to 1.1269
GBP£ is currently down -0.408% against the USD$ to 1.2924
CHF is currently down -0.282% against the USD$ to 0.9902
German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -1.8 basis points to 0.391%
UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -4.6 basis points to 1.475%
Asia stocks traded in a tight range, closing in the red as investors awaited Tencent (SEHK:700, ADR: TCEHY) earnings after the market close in Hong Kong
The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.16%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.54%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.7%, and the CSI 300 was -1%
Japanese GDP contracted 1.2% in 3Q, worse than the 1% contraction expected by market forecasters as the impact of the September earthquake in Hokkaido was a drag on productivity this quarter – GDP is expected to rebound in 4Q
Volume in Hong Kong was weaker than normal with total turnover little more than 40% below the rolling 20-day average for volume traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
China retail sales grew +8.6% in October 2018, a deceleration from the +9.2% pace in September 2018 and below market expectations for +9.2%
Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 1.59x
4 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 35 stocks reached 4-week lows
3 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 13 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.72x
2 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 4 stocks reached 4-week lows
0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 1 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.1 basis points to -0.139%
Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.3 basis points to 0.111%
JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.2 basis points to 0.25%
JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 113.9
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