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6 Price Action Retracement Entry Types You Need To Know

You've presumably heard "retracement" or "follow" much of the time in case you're keen on exchanging the monetary business sectors. Be that as it may, do you really understand what value retracements are, the reason they're so significant and how to appropriately exploit them? Maybe not, yet regardless of whether you do, the present exercise will reveal new insight into how to use these incredibly amazing business sector occasions…
A retracement in a market is a pretty simple idea to characterize and comprehend. Basically, it's actually what it seems like: a period when cost remembers back on an ongoing move, either up or down. Consider "remembering your means"; returning a similar way you came. It's fundamentally an inversion of an ongoing value move.
For what reason are retracements significant? For various reasons: They are occasions to enter the market at a "superior value", they take into account ideal stop misfortune arrangement, improved danger prize and then some. A remember passage is more traditionalist than a "market section" for instance and is viewed as a "more secure" passage type. Eventually, the objective of a dealer is get the best passage cost and oversee hazard on a par with conceivable while additionally expanding restores; the retracement section is a device that permits you to do every one of the three of these things.
This exercise will cover all parts of exchanging retracements and will assist you with understanding them better and put them to use to ideally improve your general exchanging execution.
Presently, how about we examine a portion of the Pros and Cons of retracement exchanging before we take a gander at some model graphs…
Professionals of Retracement Trading
We should discuss a portion of the many "Geniuses" of retracement exchanging. Frankly, retracement exchanging is fundamentally how you exchange like an expert rifleman, which, on the off chance that you've followed me for any timeframe, you know is my favored strategy for exchanging.
Higher Probability Entries – The very idea of a draw back or backtrack implies that cost is probably going to keep moving toward the underlying move when the follow closes. Henceforth, on the off chance that you see a solid value activity signal at a level after a retracement, it's high-likelihood passage since all signs are highlighting value bobbing starting there. Presently, it doesn't generally occur, however hanging tight for a remember to a level with a sign, is the most elevated likelihood way you can exchange. Markets pivot back to the "signify" or "normal" cost again and again; this is clear by taking a gander at any value outline for a couple of moments. Along these lines, when you see this revolution or backtrack occur, begin searching for a section point there in light of the fact that it's a lot higher-likelihood passage point than just entering "at market" like most brokers do.
Less Premature Stop-Outs – A retracement permits greater adaptability with stop misfortune arrangement. Essentially, in that you can put the prevent further away from any territory on the diagram that is probably going to be hit (if the exchange you're taking is to exercise by any stretch of the imagination). Setting prevents further away from key levels or moving midpoints or further away from a pin bar high or low for instance, gives the exchange a higher possibility of working out.
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Better Risk Rewards – Retracement passages hypothetically permit you to put a "more tight" stop misfortune on an exchange since you're entering more like a key level or you're entering at a pin bar half level on an exchange section stunt passage for instance. In this way, should you decide to do as such, you can put a stop a lot nearer than if you entered an exchange that didn't occur after a follow or on the off chance that you entered a pin bar exchange at the high or low of the pin, for instance. Model: a 100 pip stop and 200 pip target can undoubtedly turn into a 50 pip stop and 250 pip focus on a follow passage. Note: you don't have to put a more tight stop, it's discretionary, however the choice IS There on a backtrack section in the event that you need it. The other option, utilizing a standard width stop has the benefit of diminishing the odds of an untimely stop out.
A danger prize can likewise be somewhat expanded regardless of whether you utilize a standard stop misfortune, rather than a "more tight one". Model: a 100 pip stop and a 200 pip target can without much of a stretch become a 100 pip stop and a 250 pip target. Why? This is on the grounds that a remember passage lets you enter the market when it has "more space" to run toward you, because of the way that cost has pulled back and it consequently has more separation to move before it follows again when contrasted with in the event that you entered at a "more awful cost" further up or down.
Cons of Retracement Trading
Obviously I will be straightforward with you and told you a portion of the "cons" of retracement exchanging, there are a not many that you ought to know about. Notwithstanding, this doesn't mean you shouldn't attempt to learn retracement exchanging and add it to your exchanging "tool stash", in light of the fact that the geniuses FAR exceed the cons.
More Missed Trades: Good exchanges will "move away" now and then when hanging tight for a retracement that doesn't occur, for instance. This can test your nerves and exchanging attitude and will bother even the best dealers. In any case, trust me, passing up exchanges isn't the most exceedingly terrible thing on the planet and it's smarter to pass up certain exchanges than to over-exchange, that is without a doubt.
Less Trades in General – A great deal of the time, advertises just don't remember enough to trigger the more moderate passage that returns with a force. All things being equal, they may simply prop up with insignificant retracements. This implies you will have less opportunities to exchange by and large when contrasted with somebody who isn't essentially hanging tight for follows.
Because of the over two focuses, retracement exchanging can be disappointing and takes unimaginable order. In any case, in the event that you build up this order you'll be WELL in front of the majority of losing dealers thus retracement exchanging can assist you with building up the control you should need to prevail at exchanging regardless of what passage technique you wind up utilizing.
Retracements Provide Flexibility in Stop Loss Placements
Setting your stop misfortune at some unacceptable point can get you taken out of an exchange rashly, that you in any case were spot on. By figuring out how to sit tight for market pull backs or retracements, you won't just enter the market at a higher-likelihood point, however you'll likewise have the option to put your stop misfortune at a lot more secure point on the diagram.
Regularly, dealers get debilitate in light of the fact that they get halted out of an exchange that actually they were spot on. Putting a stop misfortune at some unacceptable point on a diagram can get you removed from an exchange before the market truly gets an opportunity to get moving toward you. A retracement presents a clever answer for this issue by permitting you to put a more secure and more extensive stop misfortune on an exchange, giving you a superior possibility at bringing in cash on that exchange.
At the point when a market follows or pulls back, particularly inside a moving business sector, it is giving you an occasion to put your stop misfortune at a point on the outline that is significantly more averse to take you out of an exchange. Since most remembers occur into help or opposition levels, you can put the stop misfortune further past that level (more secure) which is fundamentally less inclined to be hit than if it was nearer to the level. Utilizing what I call a "standard" stop misfortune (not a tight one) in this case will give you the most obvious opportunity at keeping away from an untimely take out of an exchange.
submitted by LondonForex to u/LondonForex [link] [comments]

Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)

Hello, dummies
It's your old pal, Fuzzy.
As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great.
What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. I do my bit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post.
That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way.
We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps.
Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy.
TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle.
Ready? Let's get started.
1. The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life
The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows:
Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself.
Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part.
You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus.
That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it.
Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets?
2. A Hedging Taxonomy
The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now.
(i) Swaps
A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one.
Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered.
The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game.
I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging.
There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested.
Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure).
(ii) Forwards
A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me.
Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways.
People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances.
These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them.
(iii) Collars
No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray!
To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts.
(3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs
You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years.
First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA.
Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire.
Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking?
Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama.
Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details.
I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here.
Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post.
*EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
submitted by fuzzyblankeet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Elliott Waves Series Part 2 - The Broad Concept

Elliott Waves Series Part 2 - The Broad ConceptYou can find Part 1 here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hieuyw/introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory_overview_of/
The primary value that the Wave Principle (from here on out, abbreviated to WP) confers on market analysts is the ability to provide context for market behaviour. Having context is incredibly important. To put it simply, the WP can be thought of as a compass. Whenever you feel lost looking at a chart (ANY chart, ANY market!), the WP will help get you back on track.
Clearing Up Some Misconceptions About Elliott Wave Theory:

  1. R.N. Elliott first discovered the WP in the 1930s using charts of the stock market. Many misinformed people believe that the WP works “best” on stocks and has been adapted for use in other markets. This is simply false. To be clear - Elliott discovered the WP. He did not invent the WP. The WP is based on human social nature and therefore it cannot be invented. It has always existed. What Elliott did was to start codifying rules and guidelines around how human social nature can be charted. Ultimately, Elliott’s objective was to be able to predict future human behaviour using the historical record. The expression of human social nature generates forms and patterns. As these forms and patterns repetitive, they have enormous predictive value.

  1. Another major misconception around the WP is that it requires a lot of discretionary analysis, and more often than not, analysts shoehorn price action to fit the Elliott Wave model. In fact, the WP has very clear rules (these rules are inviolate under any circumstance) and guidelines (these guidelines should be adhered to almost 100% of the time). While there is a discretionary element involved in counting waves, properly trained wave analysts will ultimately arrive at a consensus because following the rules and guidelines narrows the possible wave counts very quickly. Very often Wave analysts will have 2 counts at hand in terms of where they think the market is presently situated. These counts are known as the preferred count and the alternative count. These counts are validated and invalidated using price levels derived from Elliott’s rules and guidelines. The most dissent I expect from two educated Wave analysts is that one analyst’s preferred count could be the other’s alternative count. This dissent quickly resolves itself as the price action develops and validates or invalidates one count or the other. This dissent usually occurs based on wave patterns of one higher degree. It is very rare that I have seen dissent on immediate market movements.

  1. I didn’t know this was a major misconception, but someone brought this up in my first post, “I stated that Elliott Theory has better success when working in consolidations or extreme ranging markets.” This is completely false. The WP doesn’t work better or worse regardless of the market or the market conditions. That would be like saying that breathing air only works occasionally. The WP is NOT a strategy, it is the definitive model for charting human herding behaviour. Human behaviour does not show up only in periods of consolidation or range-bound markets. The markets are themselves driven by human behaviour, therefore the WP is always equally applicable. From a trading perspective, the WP is perfectly suited to capturing trends.

  1. Well, what about news events? What about supply and demand theory? What about fundamentals?! Doesn’t any of this stuff matter?? In short, the answer is no. I have previously stated that I am a macro-based investor. This is certainly true. Much of the research I consume has to do with market fundamentals and global-macro analysis. This research helps me form a view that I can overlay with the WP. From a trading perspective, when it comes to actually pulling triggers and taking positions, my decisions are always guided first and foremost by the WP. Here is a fantastic quotation from Bob Prechter on this topic, “Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. The path of prices is not a product of news. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Its movement reflects a repetition of forms that is independent both of presumed causal events and of periodicity.”
The Bottom Line:
Elliott Wave Theory is the best forecasting tool in existence. It has determined that the market’s progression unfolds in waves. Waves can be thought of as patterns that carry the market in a direction. There are a fixed number of the different kinds of patterns these waves can take. If you really boil this down to its essence, successfully applying the WP is as simple as identifying what kind of wave the market is currently in.
I will end this now. The next part will deal with the overriding wave structure that the market is in, the different kinds of waves we will see, and why this wave structure exists in the first place.
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

I wanna quit, and I have a plan, but I'm nervous...

I'm at a horrible job right now and it genuinely makes me unhappy and depressed every day, to the point where it's affecting my physical health. My workload doubled recently because 2 guys quit, and my company refuses to hire anyone new, yet they are constantly yelling at and belittling me and my coworkers because we are not getting everything done, even though we have taken on more responsibility and do different jobs that we are not paid for. I have to stay late often and don't get paid OT. Plus we have to perform tasks that we aren't trained for, which makes us look bad with customers, and we get blamed for it despite multiple requests for proper training that have gone ignored. I've about had it, and I feel like I may have a plan to get out but I'm nervous, just because of alot of unknown factors.
I want to replace my income with a few different streams while working the same amount of hours per week or maybe a little less. First, I want to try delivering for doordash, if I do it 30-35 hrs a week I should make at least 2/3rds what I make at my current job. Next, I am looking to get into audiobook narraration. I have experience public reading and have a good voice for it, it's just a matter of booking jobs. I figure I could Doordash while I audition and wait to land parts, if I can land one decent paying book per month I will have fully replaced my income. Lastly I've been learning how to trade forex, and once I feel confident enough to take my prop firm evaluation I could make some serious money. And with the strategy I'm using it should only take about 30 mins a day.
I have the plan in place, but I'm just so nervous to pull the trigger because I don't really have much savings to fall back on, so if audiobooks doesn't work out and I fail my prop firm eval, I'll be really scraping by with just doordash while putting alot of wear and tear on my car. Should I pull the trigger? Are my doubts justified? Idk what to do...
submitted by LegendOfXela14 to QuitYourJob [link] [comments]

Strategy to Make 50% - 100% a Year Trading One Day a Week.

Strategy to Make 50% - 100% a Year Trading One Day a Week.
I feel a lot of times people can over think and try to over engineer making moderate annual gains in the Forex markets. Simple and low maintenance strategies can be devised to do this.
If someone said to me, "Hey, I've got $10 million and want 15% a year . I don't want to be in the market more than 3 hours a week". I'd say, "I got this. Give me close of New York session on Friday to 2 hours before the market close. Easy gig."

In this post I will teach you how.

I will also post setups and track results from strategy on Friday's that qualify. Since I am not doing this for a pedantic millionaire investor, I'll use the whole of Friday for my trades. With this I think I should be able to beat 50% on 1% risk per position.

There are specific qualifiers needed going into Friday to trigger this strategy. It will not trade every week. Only when there is a trend present and we are either in a trending week or near the end of a corrective week.

Here is what a corrective week tends to look like.


https://preview.redd.it/dtdwbsjt74i31.png?width=673&format=png&auto=webp&s=37030c3d5e4aad34812ab806addb5e34e948b525
You can sync up this with real price action in what has been (and still is) a corrective week in GBPUSD.

Setting Up

Approaching Final High

When we see this, we have a really easy trade looking to buy London open area at a 61.8% retracement. There are multiple reasons this trade could work. Lots of different ways a strategy can pick up this trade (I won't cover these here, if you look through my post history I cover them extensively).
Here is the area on this chart I will be looking to trade.

Entry Area

Let's look closer at the trades when we have this set up. I said buy 61.8, but that is too arbitrary. Working one day a week here, should pretend to look busy, huh.


https://preview.redd.it/lwtj73tia4i31.png?width=1298&format=png&auto=webp&s=444c8d13d15c8b8f3ea5402ec35cb46c63be1440
So we're looking for the 61.8 retracement for around London. This is where the strategy can potentially come active. This trade may or may not be taken, it depends on a few things. Honestly, one of them is I might sleep in. Others are more professional ... promise.

When there has been this failed new high move, it's on. I always want the following trade. Here we're looking for a 61.8 retrace from the failed new high swing. A bounce from there, and then pending order can be placed to enter on a retest of there. This is what I consider to be a strong signal. I can use tight stops here and get good RR. I expect a strong move from this area.
When it breaks out of the high and runs a little, I'll close half my profit and trail stops to protect running profits. I will wait and watch for the market contracting and starting to make a messy range. I'll then look for it to start to pull back and look like it's going to start to correct the move of the day. I will look to buy into this move and expect to see price spiking. Not trying to "time the market" or anything, but it's probably going to be 90 to 120 minutes before the market closes this happens.

For trending weeks, I'll be using the same sort of execution rules and trading patterns. he prerequisite price action I want to see will be there having been a new high/low in the trend made by Thursday. I'll then be looking for a retrace of that and the market running out the end of the week with a final trend move.


https://preview.redd.it/5u0qyoeec4i31.png?width=520&format=png&auto=webp&s=986aa1b123f98e24aec8c23da2dd8651417a8c85

Part 2 https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cufic1/strat_for_50_100_a_year_more_details_first_trade/
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Finding Trading Edges: Where to Get High R:R trades and Profit Potential of Them.

Finding Trading Edges: Where to Get High R:R trades and Profit Potential of Them.
TL;DR - I will try and flip an account from $50 or less to $1,000 over 2019. I will post all my account details so my strategy can be seen/copied. I will do this using only three or four trading setups. All of which are simple enough to learn. I will start trading on 10th January.
----
As I see it there are two mains ways to understand how to make money in the markets. The first is to know what the biggest winners in the markets are doing and duplicating what they do. This is hard. Most of the biggest players will not publicly tell people what they are doing. You need to be able to kinda slide in with them and see if you can pick up some info. Not suitable for most people, takes a lot of networking and even then you have to be able to make the correct inferences.
Another way is to know the most common trades of losing traders and then be on the other side of their common mistakes. This is usually far easier, usually everyone knows the mind of a losing trader. I learned about what losing traders do every day by being one of them for many years. I noticed I had an some sort of affinity for buying at the very top of moves and selling at the very bottom. This sucked, however, is was obvious there was winning trades on the other side of what I was doing and the adjustments to be a good trader were small (albeit, tricky).
Thus began the study for entries and maximum risk:reward. See, there have been times I have bought aiming for a 10 pip scalps and hit 100 pips stops loss. Hell, there have been times I was going for 5 pips and hit 100 stop out. This can seem discouraging, but it does mean there must be 1:10 risk:reward pay-off on the other side of these mistakes, and they were mistakes.
If you repeatedly enter and exit at the wrong times, you are making mistakes and probably the same ones over and over again. The market is tricking you! There are specific ways in which price moves that compel people to make these mistakes (I won’t go into this in this post, because it takes too long and this is going to be a long post anyway, but a lot of this is FOMO).
Making mistakes is okay. In fact, as I see it, making mistakes is an essential part of becoming an expert. Making a mistake enough times to understand intrinsically why it is a mistake and then make the required adjustments. Understanding at a deep level why you trade the way you do and why others make the mistakes they do, is an important part of becoming an expert in your chosen area of focus.
I could talk more on these concepts, but to keep the length of the post down, I will crack on to actual examples of trades I look for. Here are my three main criteria. I am looking for tops/bottoms of moves (edge entries). I am looking for 1:3 RR or more potential pay-offs. My strategy assumes that retail trades will lose most of the time. This seems a fair enough assumption. Without meaning to sound too crass about it, smart money will beat dumb money most of the time if the game is base on money. They just will.
So to summarize, I am looking for the points newbies get trapped in bad positions entering into moves too late. From these areas, I am looking for high RR entries.
Setup Examples.
I call this one the “Lightning Bolt correction”, but it is most commonly referred to as a “two leg correction”. I call it a “Lightning Bolt correction” because it looks a bit like one, and it zaps you. If you get it wrong.

https://preview.redd.it/t4whwijse2721.png?width=1326&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9050529c6e2472a3ff9f8e7137bd4a3ee5554cc
Once I see price making the first sell-off move and then begin to rally towards the highs again, I am waiting for a washout spike low. The common trades mistakes I am trading against here is them being too eager to buy into the trend too early and for the to get stopped out/reverse position when it looks like it is making another bearish breakout. Right at that point they panic … literally one candle under there is where I want to be getting in. I want to be buying their stop loss, essentially. “Oh, you don’t want that ...okay, I will have that!”
I need a precise entry. I want to use tiny stops (for big RR) so I need to be cute with entries. For this, I need entry rules. Not just arbitrarily buying the spike out. There are a few moving parts to this that are outside the scope of this post but one of my mains ways is using a fibs extension and looking for reversals just after the 1.61% level. How to draw the fibs is something else that is outside the scope of this but for one simple rule, they can be drawn on the failed new high leg.

https://preview.redd.it/2cd682kve2721.png?width=536&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4d081c9faff49d0976f9ffab260aaed2b570309
I am looking for a few specific things for a prime setup. Firstly, I am looking for the false hope candles, the ones that look like they will reverse the market and let those buying too early get out break-even or even at profit. In this case, you can see the hammer and engulfing candle off the 127 level, then it spikes low in that “stop-hunt” sort of style.
Secondly I want to see it trading just past my entry level (161 ext). This rule has come from nothing other than sheer volume. The amount of times I’ve been stopped out by 1 pip by that little sly final low has gave birth to this rule. I am looking for the market to trade under support in a manner that looks like a new strong breakout. When I see this, I am looking to get in with tiny stops, right under the lows. I will also be using smaller charts at this time and looking for reversal clusters of candles. Things like dojis, inverted hammers etc. These are great for sticking stops under.
Important note, when the lightning bolt correction fails to be a good entry, I expect to see another two legs down. I may look to sell into this area sometimes, and also be looking for buying on another couple legs down. It is important to note, though, when this does not work out, I expect there to be continued momentum that is enough to stop out and reasonable stop level for my entry. Which is why I want to cut quick. If a 10 pips stop will hit, usually a 30 pips stop will too. Bin it and look for the next opportunity at better RR.

https://preview.redd.it/mhkgy35ze2721.png?width=1155&format=png&auto=webp&s=a18278b85b10278603e5c9c80eb98df3e6878232
Another setup I am watching for is harmonic patterns, and I am using these as a multi-purpose indicator. When I see potentially harmonic patterns forming, I am using their completion level as take profits, I do not want to try and run though reversal patterns I can see forming hours ahead of time. I also use them for entering (similar rules of looking for specific entry criteria for small stops). Finally, I use them as a continuation pattern. If the harmonic pattern runs past the area it may have reversed from, there is a high probability that the market will continue to trend and very basic trend following strategies work well. I learned this from being too stubborn sticking with what I thought were harmonic reversals only to be ran over by a trend (seriously, everything I know I know from how it used to make me lose).

https://preview.redd.it/1ytz2431f2721.png?width=1322&format=png&auto=webp&s=983a7f2a91f9195004ad8a2aa2bb9d4d6f128937
A method of spotting these sorts of M/W harmonics is they tend to form after a second spike out leg never formed. When this happens, it gives me a really good idea of where my profit targets should be and where my next big breakout level is. It is worth noting, larger harmonics using have small harmonics inside them (on lower time-frames) and this can be used for dialling in optimum entries. I also use harmonics far more extensively in ranging markets. Where they tend to have higher win rates.
Next setup is the good old fashioned double bottoms/double top/one tick trap sort of setup. This comes in when the market is highly over extended. It has a small sell-off and rallies back to the highs before having a much larger sell-off. This is a more risky trade in that it sells into what looks like trending momentum and can be stopped out more. However, it also pays a high RR when it works, allowing for it to be ran at reduced risk and still be highly profitable when it comes through.

https://preview.redd.it/1bx83776f2721.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c76c3085598ae70f4142d26c46c8d6e9b1c2881
From these sorts of moves, I am always looking for a follow up buy if it forms a lightning bolt sort of setup.
All of these setups always offer 1:3 or better RR. If they do not, you are doing it wrong (and it will be your stop placement that is wrong). This is not to say the target is always 1:3+, sometimes it is best to lock in profits with training stops. It just means that every time you enter, you can potentially have a trade that runs for many times more than you risked. 1:10 RR can be hit in these sorts of setups sometimes. Paying you 20% for 2% risked.
I want to really stress here that what I am doing is trading against small traders mistakes. I am not trying to “beat the market maker”. I am not trying to reverse engineer J.P Morgan’s black boxes. I do not think I am smart enough to gain a worthwhile edge over these traders. They have more money, they have more data, they have better softwares … they are stronger. Me trying to “beat the market maker” is like me trying to beat up Mike Tyson. I might be able to kick him in the balls and feel smug for a few seconds. However, when he gets up, he is still Tyson and I am still me. I am still going to be pummeled.
I’ve seen some people that were fairly bright people going into training courses and coming out dumb as shit. Thinking they somehow are now going to dominate Goldman Sachs because they learned a chart pattern. Get a grip. For real, get a fucking grip. These buzz phrases are marketeering. Realististically, if you want to win in the markets, you need to have an edge over somebody.
I don’t have edges on the banks. If I could find one, they’d take it away from me. Edges work on inefficiencies in what others do that you can spot and they can not. I do not expect to out-think a banks analysis team. I know for damn sure I can out-think a version of me from 5 years ago … and I know there are enough of them in the markets. I look to trade against them. I just look to protect myself from the larger players so they can only hurt me in limited ways. Rather than letting them corner me and beat me to a pulp (in the form of me watching $1,000 drop off my equity because I moved a stop or something), I just let them kick me in the butt as I run away. It hurts a little, but I will be over it soon.
I believe using these principles, these three simple enough edge entry setups, selectiveness (remembering you are trading against the areas people make mistakes, wait for they areas) and measured aggression a person can make impressive compounded gains over a year. I will attempt to demonstrate this by taking an account of under $100 to over $1,000 in a year. I will use max 10% on risk on a position, the risk will scale down as the account size increases. In most cases, 5% risk per trade will be used, so I will be going for 10-20% or so profits. I will be looking only for prime opportunities, so few trades but hard hitting ones when I take them.
I will start trading around the 10th January. Set remind me if you want to follow along. I will also post my investor login details, so you can see the trades in my account in real time. Letting you see when I place my orders and how I manage running positions.
I also think these same principles can be tweaked in such a way it is possible to flip $50 or so into $1,000 in under a month. I’ve done $10 to $1,000 in three days before. This is far more complex in trade management, though. Making it hard to explain/understand and un-viable for many people to copy (it hedges, does not comply with FIFO, needs 1:500 leverage and also needs spreads under half a pip on EURUSD - not everyone can access all they things). I see all too often people act as if this can’t be done and everyone saying it is lying to sell you something. I do not sell signals. I do not sell training. I have no dog in this fight, I am just saying it can be done. There are people who do it. If you dismiss it as impossible; you will never be one of them.
If I try this 10 times with $50, I probably am more likely to make $1,000 ($500 profit) in a couple months than standard ideas would double $500 - I think I have better RR, even though I may go bust 5 or more times. I may also try to demonstrate this, but it is kinda just show-boating, quite honestly. When it works, it looks cool. When it does not, I can go bust in a single day (see example https://www.fxblue.com/users/redditmicroflip).
So I may or may not try and demonstrate this. All this is, is just taking good basic concepts and applying accelerated risk tactics to them and hitting a winning streak (of far less trades than you may think). Once you have good entries and RR optimization in place - there really is no reason why you can not scale these up to do what may people call impossible (without even trying it).
I know there are a lot of people who do not think these things are possible and tend to just troll whenever people talk about these things. There used to be a time when I’d try to explain why I thought the way I did … before I noticed they only cared about telling me why they were right and discussion was pointless. Therefore, when it comes to replies, I will reply to all comments that ask me a question regarding why I think this can be done, or why I done something that I done. If you are commenting just to tell me all the reasons you think I am wrong and you are right, I will probably not reply. I may well consider your points if they are good ones. I just do not entering into discussions with people who already know everything; it serves no purpose.

Edit: Addition.

I want to talk a bit more about using higher percentage of risk than usual. Firstly, let me say that there are good reasons for risk caps that people often cite as “musts”. There are reasons why 2% is considered optimum for a lot of strategies and there are reasons drawing down too much is a really bad thing.
Please do not be ignorant of this. Please do not assume I am, either. In previous work I done, I was selecting trading strategies that could be used for investment. When doing this, my only concern was drawdown metrics. These are essential for professional money management and they are also essential for personal long-term success in trading.
So please do not think I have not thought of these sorts of things Many of the reasons people say these things can’t work are basic 101 stuff anyone even remotely committed to learning about trading learns in their first 6 months. Trust me, I have thought about these concepts. I just never stopped thinking when I found out what public consensus was.
While these 101 rules make a lot of sense, it does not take away from the fact there are other betting strategies, and if you can know the approximate win rate and pay-off of trades, you can have other ways of deriving optimal bet sizes (risk per trade). Using Kelly Criterion, for example, if the pay-off is 1:3 and there is a 75% chance of winning, the optimal bet size is 62.5%. It would be a viable (high risk) strategy to have extremely filtered conditions that looked for just one perfect set up a month, makingover 150% if it was successful.
Let’s do some math on if you can pull that off three months in a row (using 150% gain, for easy math). Start $100. Month two starts $250. Month three $625. Month three ends $1,562. You have won three trades. Can you win three trades in a row under these conditions? I don’t know … but don’t assume no-one can.
This is extremely high risk, let’s scale it down to meet somewhere in the middle of the extremes. Let’s look at 10%. Same thing, 10% risk looking for ideal opportunities. Maybe trading once every week or so. 30% pay-off is you win. Let’s be realistic here, a lot of strategies can drawdown 10% using low risk without actually having had that good a chance to generate 30% gains in the trades it took to do so. It could be argued that trading seldomly but taking 5* the risk your “supposed” to take can be more risk efficient than many strategies people are using.
I am not saying that you should be doing these things with tens of thousands of dollars. I am not saying you should do these things as long term strategies. What I am saying is do not dismiss things out of hand just because they buck the “common knowns”. There are ways you can use more aggressive trading tactics to turn small sums of money into they $1,000s of dollars accounts that you exercise they stringent money management tactics on.
With all the above being said, you do have to actually understand to what extent you have an edge doing what you are doing. To do this, you should be using standard sorts of risks. Get the basics in place, just do not think you have to always be basic. Once you have good basics in place and actually make a bit of money, you can section off profits for higher risk versions of strategies. The basic concepts of money management are golden. For longevity and large funds; learned them and use them! Just don’t forget to think for yourself once you have done that.

Update -

Okay, I have thought this through a bit more and decided I don't want to post my live account investor login, because it has my full name and I do not know who any of you are. Instead, for copying/observing, I will give demo account login (since I can choose any name for a demo).
I will also copy onto a live account and have that tracked via Myfxbook.
I will do two versions. One will be FIFO compliant. It will trade only single trade positions. The other will not be FIFO compliant, it will open trades in batches. I will link up live account in a week or so. For now, if anyone wants to do BETA testing with the copy trader, you can do so with the following details (this is the non-FIFO compliant version).

Account tracking/copying details.

Low-Medium risk.
IC Markets MT4
Account number: 10307003
Investor PW: lGdMaRe6
Server: Demo:01
(Not FIFO compliant)

Valid and Invalid Complaints.
There are a few things that can pop up in copy trading. I am not a n00b when it comes to this, so I can somewhat forecast what these will be. I can kinda predict what sort of comments there may be. Some of these are valid points that if you raise I should (and will) reply to. Some are things outside of the scope of things I can influence, and as such, there is no point in me replying to. I will just cover them all here the one time.

Valid complains are if I do something dumb or dramatically outside of the strategy I have laid out here. won't do these, if I do, you can pitchfork ----E

Examples;

“Oi, idiot! You opened a trade randomly on a news spike. I got slipped 20 pips and it was a shit entry”.
Perfectly valid complaint.

“Why did you open a trade during swaps hours when the spread was 30 pips?”
Also valid.

“You left huge trades open running into the weekend and now I have serious gap paranoia!”
Definitely valid.

These are examples of me doing dumb stuff. If I do dumb stuff, it is fair enough people say things amounting to “Yo, that was dumb stuff”.

Invalid Complains;

“You bought EURUSD when it was clearly a sell!!!!”
Okay … you sell. No-one is asking you to copy my trades. I am not trading your strategy. Different positions make a market.

“You opened a position too big and I lost X%”.
No. Na uh. You copied a position too big. If you are using a trade copier, you can set maximum risk. If you neglect to do this, you are taking 100% risk. You have no valid compliant for losing. The act of copying and setting the risk settings is you selecting your risk. I am not responsible for your risk. I accept absolutely no liability for any losses.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software

“You lost X trades in a row at X% so I lost too much”.
Nope. You copied. See above. Anything relating to losing too much in trades (placed in liquid/standard market conditions) is entirely you. I can lose my money. Only you can set it up so you can lose yours. I do not have access to your account. Only mine.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software

“Price keeps trading close to the pending limit orders but not filling. Your account shows profits, but mine is not getting them”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
* Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Buy limit orders will need to move up a little. Sell limit orders should not need adjusted.

“I got stopped out right before the market turned, I have a loss but your account shows a profit”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Stop losses on sell orders will need to move up a bit. Stops on buy orders will be fine.

“Your trade got stopped out right before the market turned, if it was one more pip in the stop, it would have been a winner!!!”
Yeah. This happens. This is where the “risk” part of “risk:reward” comes in.

“Price traded close to take profit, yours filled but mines never”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
(Side note, this should not be an issue since when my trade closes, it should ping your account to close, too. You might get a couple less pips).
*** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Take profits on buys will need to move up a bit. Sell take profits will be fine.

“My brokers spread jumped to 20 during the New York session so the open trade made a bigger loss than it should”.
Your broker might just suck if this happens. This is brokerage. I have no control over this. My trades are placed to profit from my brokerage conditions. I do not know, so can not account for yours. Also, if accounting for random spread spikes like this was something I had to do, this strategy would not be a thing. It only works with fair brokerage conditions.
*Suggested fix. Do a bit of Googling and find out if you have a horrific broker. If so, fix that! A good search phrase is; “(Broker name) FPA reviews”.

“Price hit the stop loss but was going really fast and my stop got slipped X pips”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
If my trade also got slipped on the stop, I was slipped using ECN conditions with excellent execution; sometimes slips just happen. I am doing the most I can to prevent them, but it is a fact of liquidity that sometimes we get slipped (slippage can also work in our favor, paying us more than the take profit would have been).

“Orders you placed failed to execute on my account because they were too large”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. Margin requirements vary. I have 1:500 leverage available. I will not always be using it, but I can. If you can’t, this will make a difference.

“Your account is making profits trading things my broker does not have”
I have a full range of assets to trade with the broker I use. Included Forex, indices, commodities and cryptocurrencies. I may or may not use the extent of these options. I can not account for your brokerage conditions.

I think I have covered most of the common ones here. There are some general rules of thumb, though. Basically, if I do something that is dumb and would have a high probability of losing on any broker traded on, this is a valid complain.

Anything that pertains to risk taken in standard trading conditions is under your control.

Also, anything at all that pertains to brokerage variance there is nothing I can do, other than fully brief you on what to expect up-front. Since I am taking the time to do this, I won’t be a punchbag for anything that happens later pertaining to this.

I am not using an elitist broker. You don’t need $50,000 to open an account, it is only $200. It is accessible to most people - brokerage conditions akin to what I am using are absolutely available to anyone in the UK/Europe/Asia (North America, I am not so up on, so can’t say). With the broker I use, and with others. If you do not take the time to make sure you are trading with a good broker, there is nothing I can do about how that affects your trades.

I am using an A book broker, if you are using B book; it will almost certainly be worse results. You have bad costs. You are essentially buying from reseller and paying a mark-up. (A/B book AKA ECN/Market maker; learn about this here). My EURUSD spread will typically be 0.02 pips or so, if yours is 1 pip, this is a huge difference.
These are typical spreads I am working on.

https://preview.redd.it/yc2c4jfpab721.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=c377686b2485e13171318c9861f42faf325437e1


Check the full range of spreads on Forex, commodities, indices and crypto.

Please understand I want nothing from you if you benefit from this, but I am also due you nothing if you lose. My only term of offering this is that people do not moan at me if they lose money.

I have been fully upfront saying this is geared towards higher risk. I have provided information and tools for you to take control over this. If I do lose people’s money and I know that, I honestly will feel a bit sad about it. However, if you complain about it, all I will say is “I told you that might happen”, because, I am telling you that might happen.

Make clear headed assessments of how much money you can afford to risk, and use these when making your decisions. They are yours to make, and not my responsibility.

Update.

Crazy Kelly Compounding: $100 - $11,000 in 6 Trades.

$100 to $11,000 in 6 trades? Is it a scam? Is it a gamble? … No, it’s maths.

Common sense risk disclaimer: Don’t be a dick! Don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose. Do not risk money doing these things until you can show a regular profit on low risk.
Let’s talk about Crazy Kelly Compounding (CKC). Kelly criterion is a method for selecting optimal bet sizes if the odds and win rate are known (in other words, once you have worked out how to create and assess your edge). You can Google to learn about it in detail. The formula for Kelly criterion is;
((odds-1) * (percentage estimate)) - (1-percent estimate) / (odds-1) X 100
Now let’s say you can filter down a strategy to have a 80% win rate. It trades very rarely, but it had a very high success rate when it does. Let’s say you get 1:2 RR on that trade. Kelly would give you an optimum bet size of about 60% here. So if you win, you win 120%. Losing three trades in a row will bust you. You can still recover from anything less than that, fairly easily with a couple winning trades.
This is where CKC comes in. What if you could string some of these wins together, compounding the gains (so you were risking 60% each time)? What if you could pull off 6 trades in a row doing this?
Here is the math;

https://preview.redd.it/u3u6teqd7c721.png?width=606&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b958747b37b68ec2a769a8368b5cbebfe0e97ff
This shows years, substitute years for trades. 6 trades returns $11,338! This can be done. The question really is if you are able to dial in good enough entries, filter out enough sub-par trades and have the guts to pull the trigger when the time is right. Obviously you need to be willing to take the hit, obviously that hit gets bigger each time you go for it, but the reward to risk ratio is pretty decent if you can afford to lose the money.
We could maybe set something up to do this on cent brokers. So people can do it literally risking a couple dollars. I’d have to check to see if there was suitable spreads etc offered on them, though. They can be kinda icky.
Now listen, I am serious … don’t be a dick. Don’t rush out next week trying to retire by the weekend. What I am showing you is the EXTRA rewards that come with being able to produce good solid results and being able to section off some money for high risk “all or nothing” attempts; using your proven strategies.
I am not saying anyone can open 6 trades and make $11,000 … that is rather improbable. What I am saying is once you can get the strategy side right, and you can know your numbers; then you can use the numbers to see where the limits actually are, how fast your strategy can really go.
This CKC concept is not intended to inspire you to be reckless in trading, it is intended to inspire you to put focus on learning the core skills I am telling you that are behind being able to do this.
submitted by inweedwetrust to Forex [link] [comments]

Shorting Noobs - Purpose of Posts and Consolidation of What We've Covered

Shorting Noobs - Purpose of Posts and Consolidation of What We've Covered
Part [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
I wanted to take some time to explain my purpose in posting this "Shorting Noobs" series here. In the posts, specifically. I've explained my theory for doing the project itself enough in Q/A in comments.

First let's cover a few things I am not here to do;

1 - Cocaine. Nasty habit.

2 - Undermine, mock or disrespect people new or losing in Forex
I hope this is apparent from my general tone in posts and answering questions. I do not think I am better than you, I know statistically speaking I do this a lot more than most of you. There are things you will be amazing in that I am a noob, it's really only a matter of time and focus. I do not use it as any sort of slur.

3 - Undermine people offering copy trading services
To be honest, I kinda like them. To see how others trade, especially if they do is systematically is fascinating to me. Much can be learned. I value watching people trade higher than airy statements about trading ideals, it gives real information.

4 - Promote Excessive Risk
Although there have been big swings in the strategy, this has not been me trying to ram the virtues of reckless risk down your throat. I recommend it only as part of a balanced diet. The strategy takes a lot of risk because what it is doing (lots of trade data from many sources). Not what I am doing, or suggesting you do.

5 - Sell Anything
I am not marketing any of the strategies I document. You will not be able to get software from me. I do not sell training. Already many people have asked me for training in DMs, and will be able to vouch I have no sales pitch (usually not even a direct answer, just a nudge in the suitable direction).


Now let's talk about what it is about.

I'll do this by sharing a couple DMs I have got.


https://preview.redd.it/oof1l8hm4ci31.png?width=664&format=png&auto=webp&s=532e151f0e9d4d429e1e7e67815b2dd1aec73390

https://preview.redd.it/59k5ug1u4ci31.png?width=681&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0ab733afceab61614313e4379b9a3cac9c4ed12

Firstly, thank you to those who've sent these sorts of messages (if you've messaged me and not heard back in 2 days, please message me again - I'll reply, but keeping up with them is tricky). The fact that when I explain some logical things you can go and test independent of me and come to your own truth on the matter validates this is worth the time and effort. This is what I want you to do. Not believe me. Not buy my hype. Check your own trades against what I highlight.

I think the whole "should I short myself" topic is too long to be included in this post properly. Short answer I'd give is no. There's a far longer one. For brevity, what you should seek to do is understand the triggers for you making losing trades. The triggers for losing entries are also triggers for winning entries. Understand them and re-wire the way you think about the market.

I want to show you that mistakes people make are predictable. I think they are so predictable that I can reduce it to working out what strategy type Timmy is trading, and then "Activate Timmy" at a time I know that strategy is prone to loss, and rack up profits in his drawn down. I also want to show you that what I do does not "break" when there is a news event. It frequently compliments it and my qualifiers foreshadow it.

I want you to understand that as a way to offer you a form of empowerment in the markets. For as long as you believe we are at the whip and whim of these things we can never understand, you're driftwood in the waves. Where others find their excuses, I have found patterns. Where many of you have your frustrations is the root of my fortunes, and I am not smarter than you. I want to stress that. I'm average, but pedantic about precision and this is my job that I do every day.

I will now round up analysis and lessons from posts over the last week or so to consolidate a lesson for you that offers you the chance to instantly improve poor trading results. I'll show you how;

1 - How I explained the type of trading error theoretically.
2 - How I flagged up someone making the trading error in real time.
3 - How I profited from the other side of the trading error, and posted that forecast.

Mistake types:

https://preview.redd.it/cz8wcjna8ci31.png?width=722&format=png&auto=webp&s=55291f94a08c7c75fc240e2a4bbe145fffd6f34b
Full post

We are going to be looking at the area when downtrend turned to correction. We'll used GBPUSD as an example. My post is timestamped, you can see I posted these common mistakes we should look for longer before the GBPUSD price action I will reference. This is not retroactive curve fitting.
Someone posted a sell setup in here on GBPUSD. By up-vote court, trend continuation was the way to go. Unfortunately the poster later deleted their post, so I can not show you specifically the type of analysis they used. I'll say it was good analysis, 2/3 times. This was the 3.
My reply.

https://preview.redd.it/4rubru039ci31.png?width=729&format=png&auto=webp&s=2320150755da871be7bf506db9af34f686c00e3a
Trades

https://preview.redd.it/zzpznz979ci31.png?width=813&format=png&auto=webp&s=c961cc7d427b2753c25c03f345baecee4d9c88ba
Area they posted their sell analysis stating something to the effect the trend was down and there'd been a big correction. We can sell now, it might go up a little more but it's due a drop (I.e, Break&Re-test trade)

https://preview.redd.it/vbvt69lj9ci31.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=ece654e53d15e0f6412cdc71e71c2899fbc19ea2

I'd call this a foreseeable mistake, and good opportunity to trade the other way when you understand the mistake. That's what I'd describe the mid week action as.

However, word on the street is ...

https://preview.redd.it/h6kvwdknaci31.png?width=703&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7e07d060f714518781a9853be05a09fd41f3ea3
I sure didn't see that coming. Draw your own conclusions.

Following this move, I then posted this analysis. In the analysis I explained the 50/61.8 trap (see [2] [3])

Someone replied this (I'm not "calling out" this person. I hope they take this for what it is, and me just showing what people think vrs what happens, and how this can be 'known').


https://preview.redd.it/vcuftml3bci31.png?width=730&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e75b04752ae9f159dd63fce004d950c84d46fa3
As well as explaining the trap type, the moves to avoid, the scalp possible in the immediate term and sort of price action to expect in a reversal (all just stuff to explain not making selling mistakes on this known mistake area), I also used another strategy to post where the buy for the run to the 61.8 area where be.


https://preview.redd.it/0wmlr6nibci31.png?width=726&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc9af6aaf04028be190ec7abfe177038aac64fa3
Full post https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cu8d23/strategy_to_make_50_100_a_year_trading_one_day_a/

Then I bought at that level, posted we should expect a big pull back and re-load for further swing highs.

https://preview.redd.it/cbi0s2ytbci31.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=a594c9f3563c235845c40e95ba6d122b29b0c869
Full post https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cufic1/strat_for_50_100_a_year_more_details_first_trade/

I posted my further entries in real time.

https://preview.redd.it/33ymy0p6cci31.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=95659d006d9e501d0e31c80f0a7e02be68944dd6
Which were profitable.
https://preview.redd.it/4xogetkccci31.png?width=491&format=png&auto=webp&s=100dd5d7344e58f721c37278c29fce6fdb3f0afe
Full post https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cujxgo/strat_for_50_100_a_year_common_points_example_of/

Through all of this, the market went about 10 pips against me in mid week trades, and then under 2 pips against me in all of my trades for today. When I entered, things just worked. Almost as if I 'knew' ... but there's no way that would be possible.
A person could not know on Tuesday what would happen the next days ...

https://preview.redd.it/ralxj9zscci31.png?width=813&format=png&auto=webp&s=33ec9f5fe6557b2e41d04114568043c6eeca55cf
A person could not tell you in the Asia session what to expect hour by hour in the coming trading day ...

https://preview.redd.it/gg09ufizcci31.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd56093469b6ef9c17ae73daf04b1aef7115b876
A person could not draw tomorrows chart ...

https://preview.redd.it/w32v079adci31.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=01077c65ffbce184f2759957e81343b200fcbf1e

https://preview.redd.it/ef23h3bedci31.png?width=530&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b396b20a18b612ea299bf993f928513cc93f7b7
Full post for all above

And of course, we know above all else ... No one can time the market.

https://preview.redd.it/gnt7wutqdci31.png?width=708&format=png&auto=webp&s=36c60b303a8f69eaeb07140e6f4d8a56193eab42

https://preview.redd.it/tkkzekb2eci31.png?width=713&format=png&auto=webp&s=a816b96eb85d6fdb75ae7b9ac057a3062f88825f


What are the purpose of my posts here?

Just wanted to add a different perspective.
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis

[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis

1. Breakout

Breakout strategies center around when the price clears a specified level on your chart, with increased volume. The breakout trader enters into a long position after the asset or security breaks above resistance. Alternatively, you enter a short position once the stock breaks below support.
After an asset or security trades beyond the specified price barrier, volatility usually increases and prices will often trend in the direction of the breakout.
You need to find the right instrument to trade. When doing this bear in mind the asset’s support and resistance levels. The more frequently the price has hit these points, the more validated and important they become.

Entry Points

This part is nice and straightforward. Prices set to close and above resistance levels require a bearish position. Prices set to close and below a support level need a bullish position.

Plan your exits

Use the asset’s recent performance to establish a reasonable price target. Using chart patterns will make this process even more accurate. You can calculate the average recent price swings to create a target. If the average price swing has been 3 points over the last several price swings, this would be a sensible target. Once you’ve reached that goal you can exit the trade and enjoy the profit.
https://preview.redd.it/0oj4a1xlvdh31.png?width=773&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f2aa07b0c7caeeb00c4f997c12e814abbd380da

2. Scalping

One of the most popular strategies is scalping. It’s particularly popular in the forex market, and it looks to capitalise on minute price changes. The driving force is quantity. You will look to sell as soon as the trade becomes profitable. This is a fast-paced and exciting way to trade, but it can be risky. You need a high trading probability to even out the low risk vs reward ratio.
Be on the lookout for volatile instruments, attractive liquidity and be hot on timing. You can’t wait for the market, you need to close losing trades as soon as possible.
https://preview.redd.it/dzaf7t1nvdh31.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3d96d74311de806c3809698df2a964e3eb4db5e

3. Momentum

Popular amongst trading strategies for beginners, this strategy revolves around acting on news sources and identifying substantial trending moves with the support of high volume. There is always at least one stock that moves around 20-30% each day, so there’s ample opportunity. You simply hold onto your position until you see signs of reversal and then get out.
Alternatively, you can fade the price drop. This way round your price target is as soon as volume starts to diminish.
This strategy is simple and effective if used correctly. However, you must ensure you’re aware of upcoming news and earnings announcements. Just a few seconds on each trade will make all the difference to your end of day profits.
https://preview.redd.it/z4r2o6covdh31.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b054c77c4bc5978821e879eff73d613d728cb0cf

4. Reversal

Although hotly debated and potentially dangerous when used by beginners, reverse trading is used all over the world. It’s also known as trend trading, pull back trending and a mean reversion strategy.
This strategy defies basic logic as you aim to trade against the trend. You need to be able to accurately identify possible pullbacks, plus predict their strength. To do this effectively you need in-depth market knowledge and experience.
The ‘daily pivot’ strategy is considered a unique case of reverse trading, as it centers on buying and selling the daily low and high pullbacks/reverse.
https://preview.redd.it/4ya3txcpvdh31.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=f40216413b1376b2d6d5a67e4d09057f55be6ba1

5. Using Pivot Points

A day trading pivot point strategy can be fantastic for identifying and acting on critical support and/or resistance levels. It is particularly useful in the forex market. In addition, it can be used by range-bound traders to identify points of entry, while trend and breakout traders can use pivot points to locate key levels that need to break for a move to count as a breakout.

Calculating Pivot Points

A pivot point is defined as a point of rotation. You use the prices of the previous day’s high and low, plus the closing price of a security to calculate the pivot point.
Note that if you calculate a pivot point using price information from a relatively short time frame, accuracy is often reduced.
So, how do you calculate a pivot point?
  • Central Pivot Point (P) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
You can then calculate support and resistance levels using the pivot point. To do that you will need to use the following formulas:
  • First Resistance (R1) = (2*P) – Low
  • First Support (S1) = (2*P) – High
The second level of support and resistance is then calculated as follows:
  • Second Resistance (R2) = P + (R1-S1)
  • Second Support (S2) = P – (R1- S1)

Application

When applied to the FX market, for example, you will find the trading range for the session often takes place between the pivot point and the first support and resistance levels. This is because a high number of traders play this range.
It’s also worth noting, this is one of the systems & methods that can be applied to indexes too. For example, it can help form an effective S&P day trading strategy

6. Moving Average Crossover

You will need three moving average lines:
  • One set at 20 periods – This is your fast moving average
  • One set at 60 periods – This is your slow moving average
  • One set at 100 periods – This is your trend indicator
This is one of the moving averages strategies that generates a buy signal when the fast moving average crosses up and over the slow moving average. A sell signal is generated simply when the fast moving average crosses below the slow moving average.
So, You’ll open a position when the moving average line crosses in one direction and you’ll close the position when it crosses back the opposite way.
How can you establish there’s definitely a trend? You know the trend is on if the price bar stays above or below the 100-period line.

the source : https://www.daytrading.com/strategies
submitted by JalelTounsi to ethfinance [link] [comments]

$40 - $1,000 Flip Challenge Update

Quick background for those new here. This started with me saying that if a person gets suitable good at entering the market and finding places to get high RR trades, it is entirely possible to flip small amounts of money into larger ones relatively quickly. To demonstrate this, I said Id flip $40-50 into over $1,000 over a year and link up Myfxbook to track all my trades. I’d also run versions of the strategy with the info posted for people to log into the accounts, see the trades and copy them if they want (see ForexCopy).

The first one I bust on day one. I tried to do it really quickly ($1,000 in a week or so from $40). I got up around 200% - 250% and then zero’d it. The trades I lost in where not really good opportunities, and I as overly aggressive with them. Was dumb.

The second one I tried running via a copy trader, it messed up early trades and vitaly went bust in the opening hours (I do not think it ever went into profit).

The “I can flip $40 to $1,000 as long as I can keep reloading $40s” challenge is far less impressive. So, I have been reloading that account with tiny amounts, trying to get from $2 or so up to a more useful equity figure. I have failed doing this various times, but it has been down to accuracy being less sharp that it may have been rather than this not being viable.

This is viable. It is fucking hard. Don’t get me wrong. Entering the market when you have 5 - 7 pips before you get margin called is tricky. Kinda fun, too. Good training in getting entries. With a couple good entries, though, entirely viable. $2 can get to $5, $5 can get to $15 and that is enough pips at 0.01 to have a damn good cracking at catching some big moves. Realistically, I think it only takes 10 really good trades to have a fairly useful bankroll.

So let’s just write the $40 - $1,000 thing off. I bombed that.

I am willing to up the ante. Rather than $40 - $1,000 over 12 months, I think I can do $2 or $3 to $5,000 in 18 months.

This is contingent upon a couple things;

This may sound outlandish and crazy, but the maths behind this are fairly solid. All it takes is catching a few 50 - 100 pip trades. A few of these can take $2 to $30, a few more and it is over $100. I can get 1:10 - 1:15 risk reward trades, and can increase risk:reward with in-trade management and adding positions (or hedging positions in profit). So using 5 - 10% risk in really prime opportunities, and it does not take many of them in a row to make some decent money compounding an account from $100.

Technical Details on Margin Requirements
You may be wondering how this can even be feasible. It may seem logical that even the best trader in the world could not get started from $2, but actually with the right brokerage conditions and pair selection, this can be done.

I am using IC Markets. I have 1:500 leverage.
Commission per trade is 0.6 of a lot (so, about $0.04-0.06 per trade with my position sizes).
My spreads are usually under a pip. They sometimes go to zero spread.

Pair selection.

NZD and JPY are the lowest margin requirement currencies, and these can trend well. So I focus on these for starting out. I am trading NZDJPY, I require $1.33 margin to open 0.01 lots. So this means if I close all my trades and have under $1.33 I can not open any more trades.
However, my stop out level is 50% of my margin requirements. So I get stopped out when I have $0.65 equity. This gives me about 15 pips from $2. I can also hedge this, and can use ways to manipulate margin requirements to get the most bang for my buck (which can be good or bad, it goes both ways, but it gives me more options).
So with these settings, to take $2 to $10 is not all that hard. Catch 50 pips or so a couple times without the first trade drawing down 10+ pips. With $10, I have 100 pips at 0.01 (or the option of far more creative positioning), I think 100 pips is plenty margin for error to get into a few good trades and get going.

I’ve pinned the Myfxbook for this to start from today (16th January 2019) since this is the first day I am taking this seriously.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/inweedwetrust/40-1000/2893650

Deposit $1.50 + account balance $0.65 = Slightly over $2 to start.
The net deposit on this account is now around $66.

Update.

I want to quash this idea that the only way someone can make large returns in FX is using reckless risk and gambling. Obviously many people do this ,but some just know ways to get far more reward for their risks.

Here is a trade I am. I had about $3.50 equity when opening the first two trades. 5 pips and 2 pips stops. I was risking about $0.50.

https://preview.redd.it/ljohtjwqdwa21.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=24d62c7296c8afdc15907dbe42a18a37f389e1fd
Then as the move has developed, I have adjusted my stops and added to the position. I am targeting 60 pips or so here, about $20 pay off. I have nothing at risk now. I will end the trade really close to breakeven, if not slightly up.

I have turned $0.50 risk into potentially $20 profit, and done this in the space of 10 pips.

**I am not saying this is easy**. It has taken me years of studying price moves to know how, and far more importantly when to do this. I am saying it something that can be learned, and when applied well ... can be surprisingly profitable.

Update.


https://preview.redd.it/1jptz02cfwa21.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8af8bd06a16058ae2369fe634215116d806fc31
Now I have set hedging orders on an area I know price often pulls back from. If it pulls back to the level I expect, I can exit the hedges and have the buy stops under there. If it then goes higher, I banked an extra X% on the gain with the hedges.
I have set a hedging order above the high for if price blows through the take profits (making me short) and continues upwards. The worse case scenario sees me lose rather little, the best case (price filling take profits and then coming down to make the sells profitable, or the price retracing so the sells are profitable then it making a high) yield substantial profit potential.

Piling up potential profit, without adding on much potential risk.

Update.

https://preview.redd.it/v70pqc9qiwa21.png?width=1362&format=png&auto=webp&s=a252499e2dc4f5ffc782fb6e44ffc5d8b8fb0fa6
Then I use the rules of the Extreme Edge strategy to trail stops. To get my line in the sand. I now have locked in a profti (albeit small) and can potentially make somewhere in the $25 - $30 range or perhaps more from my $0.50 risk.
https://www.reddit.com/Forexnoobs/comments/af15l9/extreme_edge_strategy_detailed/

Update.

This never worked out (I screwed it up). It is a lot harder with $2 on a 1 minute chart whilst posting live updates. However later you will see how I can take these same principles that can make $0.50 risk into $20 and use them to get into positions where $10 risk can be $300. Or where $100 can be several thousand.

Update.
So I was a bit early on that move, but this is what it looks like when it works. Occasions to position like this happen fairly frequently. I can get myself into these positions where I am risking a nominal amount for much larger gains many times in a day. I can take the same principles and apply them to weekly charts and position for "flash crashes", and other volatile moves.
This is obviously on an account with more equity, I got margin called on the small one, will try again tomorrow. I was probably 2 pips away from going to $2 to close to $100 today (assuming the trades come through as I think). Will be abl to check what it could have been. If I'd hit the first trade, it would have mirrored the trades in the account that is copying my account *2 risk. If these swings hit, this account may make about $50 in them. Which will put it up about 100% (trading only 2x 0.01 at any time) since we fixed the margin/FIFO copying issues. Bit early to be counting chickens, but we'll see. https://www.myfxbook.com/members/drcherrypoppemt4-9084923/2910254


https://preview.redd.it/xhqv5tf55za21.png?width=1359&format=png&auto=webp&s=e63d97b4d7ef32573071afff3c31f67a98f725e6
submitted by inweedwetrust to Forexnoobs [link] [comments]

Teach me please :)

Teach me please :)
Hey everyone,
My name is Allen and I am new to Forex trading. I've messed around with trading stocks a year ago, but never got good enough to profitability yet. Now, I want to learn how to trade Forex and hoping I can become profitable through consistency and persistence.
I recently opened a live account and have made 7 trades: 2 wins, 4 losses. I have been trading small and have followed my stop losses so my losses have been small. I am down net -$35 currently. Here are a few of my trades. If anyone has feedback or sees a pattern in my trading that I can improve on, please let me know. I mainly execute trades off when market taps a resistance/support level or EMA line.
Things that I think I need to improve on: 1) Identifying correct market trend
- Ex) sometimes I have trouble figuring out if market is pulling back on a downtrend or starting to create a higher low and reversing

2) Identifying proper entry signals
- I am still working on interpreting price action. I usually enter trades on 15min chart or 1 hour chart. I may need to stop using 15min chart because I get faked out easily from it. One thing I've been implementing and it has helped my patience is waiting for candles to close before assuming market trend. Such as waiting for 15min candle or 1hour candle to close before entering a trade.


Here are some examples of my trades:
1) NZD/USD (Loss) Entry: short 0.65313 Exit: 0.65394
Reason for entry: I thought the market was going to respect the green trend line. Stop loss was right above the trend line. I saw a wick on 15 min chart and a red engulfing candle following it.


1 hour chart

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2) USD/CHF (Loss) Entry: short 1.00876 Exit: 1.00942
Reason for entry: In the 1 hour chart, it broke it's uptrend structure by creating a lower low. It rejected off the .50 level of Fibonacci Retracement, which signaled me that it is possibly going to continue downtrending. Both, 4hour and 1 hour charts were under the 34EMA (orange trend line).
15 min chart


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


3) EUNZD (Win) Entry: short 1.71027 Exit: 1.70674 | 1.70884
Reasons for entry: - Market went under key level (orange horizontal line) - Market was under 34EMA (yellow trend line) - Broke through support (white horizontal line)
15 min chart
Where could I have gotten a better entry on this trade? I was negative for a long time until it finally broke the support. What will signal me if the market will be rejected off a resistance level or break through a resistance level?


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4) NZD/USD (Win) Entry: 0.65426 Exit: 0.65335 | 0.65215 | 0.65188
Reasons for entry:
- downward market trend - market rejected off 34EMA trendline (yellow trend line) - big red engulfing candle
https://preview.redd.it/7u6fidd78h131.png?width=1560&format=png&auto=webp&s=701cf325906e056ec5b71544c5bc4895a0117c02
Lessons I learned from this trade: - Be more patient on my take profit. Took first profits out too quickly because it was dropping so quick and I was scared it would bounce back up
- Find better entry
- Similar to the previous trade, I was in the negative for a while before it worked out. Where would be a proper signal for a short? Long wick followed by a red engulfing candle at resistance level?


Sorry for the long post! Hope you learned something from my mistakes and I would greatly appreciate any feedback you guys can give me! I believe forex trading can become the gateway to financial freedom for me and I want to do my best to make it work. I also live in Orange County, CA and wouldn't mind meeting anyone who is in the area to discuss strategies and learn from each other!
Hope everyone has a great night!
submitted by allenaxie to Forex [link] [comments]

Shorting Noobs - Common Trend Following Mistakes I'm Trading Against.

Shorting Noobs - Common Trend Following Mistakes I'm Trading Against.
Part [1] [2] [3]

Not much in terms of adjustments to add from previous post. I'm going to implement all risk adjustments at the weekend. In the meantime I've used some manual hedging to prevent from over exposure.
In this post I'll talk more about the ideal trades I am looking for. The mistakes people make at these areas, and how to build forward looking trade plans so you are less likely to find yourself caught in one of these market traps. I do consider these to be traps. I think price routinely moves in ways that induce market participants to take losing positions. I think this is done in algorithmic fashion and this means it leaves clues in forms of recurring ways laying traps.
This is just an opinion. I don't know.

First we will examine the classic structure of a trend. All examples will use a downtrend.

Basic Recurring Trend Structure:

Basic Trend Structure

Most of you will have seen this before, and probably recognise it as Elliot Wave theory (EWT). Whether or not you think EWT is valid or not, there are some things I think all of us can agree on. That is for the market to be in a downtrend, it has to keep making new lows. If it doesn't, it's not in a downtrend anymore. You'll also probably agree there are retraces in moves. That not often are new lows consistently made without any retrace. In a broad sense, this is all EWT is describing, which makes it noteworthy in good trending conditions.

Here are the points where most mistakes are made by traders in EWT cycles.


Trend Best/Worst Entries

All areas marked off in orange are places where it's easy to make mistakes.

Looking closer, this is what the more detailed price action on these sorts of moves tend to look like on lower timeframes.


Detailed Best/Worst Entries

Brown boxes are where buying mistakes are made. Purple circles are where selling mistakes are made.
We'll look a bit closer at what the specific mistakes are usually based on (conventional technical analysis theories) soon. First here is an example of this on a real AUDUSD chart.


AUDUSD Example Chart
This is a 45 minute chart, so the swings are not as detailed as the ones I've drawn (mine are more like 15 min), but you should be able to see how this concept can be transferred over onto a real chart. All of us who have been trading for a while know there are times we have made these mistakes. Everyone has ended up selling the bottom pip, or getting stopped out right before it reversed. Many of these times (in a trending market) fit into these areas.
This is not just curve fitting. Using rules to help to describe these conditions to pick the best trades and trading against the trades strategy providers offer, I picked up these trades. This was not perfect, what I'm doing needs a lot of work.

AUDUSD Trade

Here we can see a couple few of the mistakes. The green lines are profits and orange lines are losses. Here shorting these mistakes has done quite well on the spike out low. It's hard to see, but it also got a lot of good buys at the low. There are some losses at the high, but there is a far larger position accumulated around the mistake level.

AUDUSD Result
See previous analysis on these trades in [2] [3]
A big trend leg followed this build up of positions and hit take profits where stops were set under the low. This is where people start to sell, but this is also usually a mistake to sell immediately after this breakout.

The types of mistakes made are due to a handful of concepts. Here I've numbered them.

Mistake Types
Rules/Rational people have in mind making these mistakes.

1 - Breakout/new high relative to recent leg / stops above previous high on sell/ previous low on buy.
2 - Single candle price action mistake.
3 - Breakout trading rushing in / stops go under recent supports/ over recent resistance.
4 - Break and retest.
5 - Deep correction.

Everything listed above has the potential to be very useful and valid in a technical analysis based strategy. However, in some contexts they are literally the very worst thing you can do. That's the thing about trading, you can do the same thing at different times and get wildly different results. What I'm trying to do here is not find people who lose every trade (I want them to win overall, actually. So I can keep copying them). I just want to work out ways to bet against mistakes they are likely to make. I think people will make these mistakes more reliably than an automated system will pick up trades.
I should add that most of these areas the mistakes happen at will be hit with a lot of velocity. This I think is what triggers the mistakes from so many impulsive traders. The market will amble along in a slow non-threatening / uninteresting sort of way, then suddenly all in a rush make these moves that imply something BIG is happening in a certain direction, when actually it's just about to move against these very positions if you take them. Velocity is one of my key filters.

Let's talk about the end of the two leg correction, this is one of the places I think most of the money is made and lost. At this point in an EWT cycle, the market is gearing up to enter it's strongest move. The best move to trade, and the smart market is going to need to get people on the wrong side. This is usually achieved with three things. One, the market makes it's first false reversal from a 50% retrace, and then moves with a lot of velocity into the 61.8% fib (briefly described in [2]). Then there's a second false breakout with price trading a little over the 61.8%, followed by a price crash into new lows.
The interesting thing about this move is if you speak to anyone with any sort of interest in EWT, they will tell you this move often completes with a news spike. There is positive news, the market moves quickly in the direction it "should" and then quickly makes a rapid reversal. Sometimes the move on the news makes absolutely no sense what-so-ever fundamentally. but does strike these areas.
Here is the Brexit chart.
Brexit trend continuation from 61.8% spike out pattern

Let's go further back.

Scotland Vote High
Here is where GBP made it's high point. This was after the fantastic fundamental news (apparently) that Scotland was staying in the UK. Price shot up, then began to heavily downtrend. I've marked in the start to the previous swing with a line, if you check these fibs you'll see it fits with the mistake. We are now in the part of cycle where GBP is aggressive pulling away from the range where the false reversals happened. This is punishing those who bought in this range, and we should expect to see it end in a violent spike down. Remember the people who thought buying Sterling after Brexit was free money? Nah uh.
This happens a lot. When it happens I see people trying to explain it with all sorts of theories. Usually involving the saying "priced in already". People often refer to these in aloof and vague ways, as if there was no way we could have ever known, and it's certainly not worth trying to forecast these sorts of things ... but next time you see this, have a quick check and see if we happened to be in a correction that spiked out a 50% high and reversed around 61.8%. It is wiser to look at what happened than take wild guesses as to why. I am not saying that it always it, nor am I saying it works like magic. I'm just saying it can be quantified. When someone says, "Well you see it was not what was said, or the number, but what was inferred ...", really means nothing. It's an opinion. We're better to look for things we can test, in my view at least.

So, let me talk you through the mental mindset of people when they're making these mistakes. I'm going to use this big Sterling chart, so this will also be a bit of a price forecast.


Mistakes Thinking Patterns.
1 - Price has been going up strongly, it's retraced and there is a single candle PA buy signal. Sets people up to take a horrible trade.
2 - Price has been falling hard and made yet another breakout, it's an easy sell ...
3 - This has fell too far, it's a reversal now. Look how strong it is.
4 - This is a strong breakout and this must be the start of a bigger move.
5 - Wow, it's broke the lows and look how hard it's falling, big sell time.

I think we will see stage 5 complete around 1.190. I think we may be due a fast move into this. Maybe in the coming week or two. It would be typical of the spike nature of end of this sort of move that this will be a single candle of over 150 pips that fills this. Being and holding GBPUSD shorts targeting 1.196 seems a great idea to me.

These five mistakes, made at these handful of areas are the ones I wanting to trade against, and if you'd like to be a profitable trader, are the places you should be looking for entries.
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Crypto/Stocks Trading: I don't know, what I'm doing

Crypto/Stocks Trading: I don't know, what I'm doing
Well, this is the first thing you can think after you've made 3, 5, 10 bad trades, and it may seem that way isn't for you. Yes I can agree with the opinion that day trading(same as margin trading and an option trading) is not for everyone, and everything depend in part on what happens to trader if he opens a very risky deal and the deal is a flop. Speaking only for myself, you feel yourself very depressed, this world doesn't like me. Lol. All these feelings can be avoided if you follow the simple rules.

https://preview.redd.it/i6tkmqjjqs031.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=06c670f5cdc6fc88a43243abd579ac812997588b
  1. Keep calm.
  2. Portfolio diversification
  3. The strategy. Every trade must be made by rules.
  4. Take profit/Use stop-loss.

1. Keep calm.

Easy to say hard to do. This skill is essential to anyone who wants to start investing in stocks or especially in cryptocurrencies.The market can bring you instant profit from your first trade and you will feel like a PRO trader, but wait for a little, tomorrow the price can be higher. All depends on what trend did you choose.

A little tip: What about uptrend investing–have you heard of that before? Buying shares/crypto in an uptrend will make some nice gains for you. BTW, buying after a pull-back in an uptrend will make you smarter. And vice versa.

2. Portfolio diversification

Remember, you should have at least 5 assets, but less than 20. If you have 5 to 15 asset that's ok because you can track them on a regular basis every day.

I recommend you this sites:

Events: https://coinmarketcal.com
Social: http://stocktwits.com, reddit and twitter
Charts: https://tradingview.com
Education: http://thepatternsite.com/visualcpindex.html and Google.

In my view, these projects can rise in the next months: $ADA, $EOS, $LTC, $ETH.

In my view, these stocks can rise in the next months: $TGODF, $TWTR, $FB, $MSFT.

3. The strategy. Every trade must be made by rules.

The required skills can be augmented through well-designed training activities. Books, youtube videos, posts, everything that you can find will help you in the future. The example from my life. Two year ago I have watched the professional Forex Trader on youtube, I got so much helpful tips that I've never heard, and it was impressive.

a. You don't need 10 or more indicators, 5 is enough.
b. Time-frame and trading sessions. Open or close your orders only at start or end of time-frame.
c. Support and Resistance lines/levels work very well.
d. Don't be greedy. The best way to avoid these situations is to set a target to stick with it. You shold wait until everyone on social media will be greedy.

4. Take profit/Use stop-loss.

No one is safe from the spread of bad news about companies or cryptocurrencies, that's why the stop-loss is needed for trading. Take-profit is needed to feel money in your wallet. ;) Also I recommend after successful trading buy something what will do your life better or happier.

Tomorrow I will post more about strategy and how properly to use every point I mentioned above.

I want to apologize for possible errors bc english is not my native language.
Thank you for reading and GL everyone.
submitted by Fanfan_la_Tulip to marketknows [link] [comments]

[Forex Broker Exposure] GPAK Has Been Investigated by the Police

As the financial market with the most frequent transactions, the Forex market is favored by global investors due to its high efficiency, liquidity and flexibility. However, many illegal brokers also lurk around on this lucrative market, attracting investors with appealing yet misleading advertisement such as “starting trading with only US$5” and “speedy deposit and withdrawal”, or promising investors so-called “bonus” for successfully inviting others to open account at the platform. But behind the attractive “high profits” claimed by brokers, there are often great risks or even traps.

As one of the victims suffering such broker scams, Mr. Wang reported GPAK to WikiFX and shared his experience of being defrauded to warn other investors against the illegal Forex broker.

Complainant: Mr. Wang
Forex broker: GPAK
Broker website: http://www.gpakcn.com/
Time of opening account: February, 2019
Time of withdrawal: June 20th, 2019
Withdrawal status: in process
Customer service: no response
Website status: inaccessible

Event Recap
I opened an account on GPAK in February, 2019 under the recommendation of a friend and made 2 deposits through Alipay. From February to June, I managed to make some profits which added up with the initial deposit to US$3,503.62.
I once contacted the customer service in April to withdraw, but was advised to wait, as he claimed my request won't be processed during the May Day holiday. On June 20th, I was informed that my application had been approved. But strangely enough, my trading account showed the application remained in process and I still didnt receive the money a week later. When I tried to log in my GPAK account, I found the website was no longer accessible and the customer service didn't reply any more.

Case Study
First persuade investors to deposit through “acquaintance's recommendation” , and then postpone their withdrawal applications to prepare for escaping, which is an old trick of illegal brokers.
In Mr. Wang's case, GPAK first got Mr. Wang to deposit through the marketing strategy of “acquaintance's recommendation” and further lured him into making more investments with attractive profits. When Mr. Wang tried to withdraw, the customer service began to pull up all kinds of excuses such as withdrawal can't be processed during the holiday in order to postpone withdrawal and perhaps win themselves more time for running away.

Case Summary
As more Forex scams have been exposed, the illegal brokers also become more sophisticated in their tricks. We conclude the following tips based on Mr. Wang's case:
  1. Investors should always check a broker's qualification and stay prudent about the recommendations of others, even from your friends.
  2. Think twice when you seem to be profiting and want to double down your deposit, as no investment comes without risks.
  3. Asset safety should always be your priority. Only deposits made through UnionPay or in escrow are under the regulation of the People's Bank of China, and there's still a chance of getting the money back even if you' re defrauded. However, if the deposit is made through Alipay, WeChat Pay or personal transfer, investors risk suffering great loss.

Conclusion
According to the information on WikiFX App, the licenses from FCA(UK) and NFA(US) which GPAK claims to hold are suspected to be cloned, while its AR license from FCA(UK) has been revoked. Currently without valid regulatory status, the broker is rated at only 1.93 on the WikiFX App and bears significant risks, please stay away from it.
submitted by jumpjumpskate to investing [link] [comments]

Forex Trading Platform - Online Trading Strategy

Forex Trading Platform - Online Trading Strategy
Forex Trading Platform - Online Trading Strategy
Check Out The Infographic Version Of This Article: learn the forex trading platform that can bring success to your online trading strategyOnline Forex trading has now become the most lucrative way to earn money around the world for both the traders and the brokers. Finance brokerages are trying every possible way to pull in customers and convert them as their loyal clients. While it is crystal clear that an online trading platform is a must to aloft your forex trading career, it is more important to choose the best trading platform among the thousands that are available online. Get to know how a trading platform performs and learn about forex trading that can bring success to your online trading strategy.
  • REAL-TIME DATA:-If your trading platform is not able to relay you the live market prices, it would be like a graph and chart displaying screen leading you to the darkest edges of trading losses. Real-time data becomes the key factor in trading and plays a crucial role in influencing your trading decisions.
  • USER-FRIENDLY INTERFACE:-You should feel comfortable enough to execute trades, understand what the platform is all about and be familiar with all the functions and features in the platform. It should deliver you a smooth experience and allow you to trade with less hassle and perplexity.
  • CHARTS AND TECHNICAL INDICATORS - THE MORE IN NUMBER, HIGHER THE COMPLEXITY:-You might have observed that some trading platforms have an endless number of charts and technical indicators. Being a trader, the more you get exposed to a wide number of charts and indicators, higher are the chances you tend to forget what you have already learned. A trading platform which has minimal but the most important charts and indicators are more reliable.
  • THE ABILITY TO TRADE ANYWHERE AND EVERYWHERE:-You cannot afford to miss opportunities when the market conditions are favourable. You must have access to your trading account irrespective of the place you are in i.e. your trading platform should be compatible with different devices either it is Android, iOS or desktop.
  • A BRIEF HISTORY OF YOUR TRADING:-Looking back always helps you to learn more and be the better version of you. The feature of analyzing your trading history can give you tons of added advantage and enlightenment when you want to improve your online trading strategy.

THE KEY TO YOUR TRADING SUCCESS WITH AX1 PLATFORM…

AX1 Trading Platforms is one of the most successful trading platform used worldwide by financial brokerages and traders. Being unique in its class, find out how AX1 trading platform could help you become a successful trader:
  • Real-time data is the most important factor in online forex trading, AX1 trading platform gets you accurate forex quotes at every instance without fail thus helping you maximize your gains.
  • A customer-centric and user-friendly design makes it stand above in its class. The elegant design makes you feel comfortable every time you use it. Experience a smooth and flawless trading platform.
  • AX1 platform offers you the charts and indicators which are easy to understand and trade with. Looking into and referring too many charts will not only confuse you but will also disrupt your trading career.
  • AX1 platforms are available in Android, iOS, Windows and MacOS allowing you to trade 24/7 without any interruptions.
  • It is important to stay on track by analyzing your previous wins and losses. With AX1 platforms you get detailed information of how your previous trades have ended up providing you with enough information and support for your futures trading.
To be a long-term successful trader, you must have the grit and perseverance along with the ability to make smart trading decisions. One such decision is choosing the platform you are going to trade with. To be successful, you have to go for the best.
submitted by alshuaib_financials to u/alshuaib_financials [link] [comments]

90 Day Update / Beginner's Post

Hey all, First time poster, long time lurker. Just learning until I think of useful/interesting post. I just finished Babypips school. No this isn’t another, “What do I do next?!” eager to consume posts. More just introducing myself and share methods as I progress and chat more in this sub. It’s been a super helpful research tool with just the sidebar alone, but the interactions are also generally positive and research engaged. Forex was on my list of active/sidehobby/internet ideas to try. (Along with selling on Ebay and learning/teaching languages) I’ve always been into stocks/finance and I’m open still open to continuing learning past forex into futures and/or cryptocurrency. Forex to me is kind of an intro to price action and charts for me. Also the physics of it all that I’m hoping to apply more as time goes on. Anyways , started forex 2 years ago. Saw I needed disposable income you could lose (which I didnt have at the time) and put it off. Now I’m about 3 months in with my rediscovery of it with a lot more financial cushion/discipline.I finished the babypips school and try to practice 25-45 mins a day of something forex related the last 90 days or so. Here is my routine and some things I”ve learned since starting.
Demo Trading is overrated. And then it becomes the best thing ever. I’m gunna just go out and say it. IF you’re trading for 9 months on demo you should’ve stopped 8 months ago. I mean don’t get me wrong 9 months, that shows alot of persistence in your habits, but you’re spending time on a variable that doesn’t exchange certainty in the real system. I only even say this because you could be like me. Trade demo all this time then find out the leverage you wanted isn’t even available in your country. (U.S here) So I felt like a dummy from the jump, but that’s part of the learning curve you should be doing sooner rather than later. This does not mean fund your account fully. No, put just $200. I trade with my initial capitol @ $200 and I won’t add a penny more until I’ve developed a profitable system with what’s already in there. A good investment is a good investment and throwing more money doesn’t actually add value to the growth return on your investment.(In most cases) So what’s the big deal with Demo? Well for one you want to work with a system that’s tangible in your country. U.S is capped at 1:50 leverage. I don’t know other countries regulations but it’s something I wish someone told me to look out for before I started testing financial strategies. Another thing is the spreads are often very different from what you find in demo (attention scalpers out there) sometimes dramatically. (After NY close of the day /Weekends ) You have to implement all of these factors to your strategy. Now what is demo good for? Starting out! Learning how to set indicators, trades, stop losses and so on. I’d say 60 days max if you can’t donate much time. Even less than 60 days if you have more free time but then after that it’s time to get your feet wet. One other good thing about demo accounts is that it allows you to practice fundamentally different trading ideas out before trying them out on your actual account. An example would be a scalper trying a new position strategy he learned in demo to set some long term positions next year. I enjoy trading because it’s a discipline on your anxiety. When you deposit your first amount, any amount that's more than a new video game or dvd collection, your brain is going to fire off “Hey you bought something new that can make money let’s test it out! It could be making you money” You have to calm this voice first. IF you even can. This voice makes you check the charts 3x more than you did in demo and caused at least me to trade just so the money’s not going to waste. I lost 40% of my account the first week. I would’ve called myself mentally stable before this too. But that voice broke me and you have to confront it because it’s the impatience in all of us and causes you to force your view of the markets to fit your system. Demo is a great tool but shouldnt be held on longer than it’s purpose.
Immersion This is going to be a little shorter than my last topic because this is more something everyone has to find and listen to. Don’t just study the same website or forum for forex everyday. Try to get a wide view of the financial markets as a whole and various media input. Subscribe to a couple good youtube channels maybe a visual representation of what you’ve been learning could help solidify it. Maybe a podcasts personality makes your brain react differently to topics where a bland textbook reading didnt excite you the same. Watch a documentary on trading one week and hell maybe even Wolf of Wall Street another week, whatever it is that gets your whole body involved in the feeling of trading so 1) you don’t get burned out on the topic and 2) you find more ways to connect with the information you find. Whether emotional or visually. Here are two recommendations of channels that help me break the norm of my study routine:
“Two Blokes Trading” Podcast I discovered these guys a while back in a comment thread. I would recommend this podcast to beginners because you can start from the very beginning of their series and learn with them. They’re young, enthusiastic and open to exploring alot of areas to trading and different philosophies. So sometimes you can find gems in subjects you didn’t expect to encounter. They also bring in advisors and brokerage managers to feature on their subjects. And it’s not all forex focused. Check them out: http://twoblokestrading.com/podcast-episodes/
Barry Burns “Top Dog Trading” Barry Burns I like because you have him walking you through the charts on youtube. One of the few videos I watched on Price action were by him where the lightbulb went off. He offers a great free resource and sometimes I even feel guilty getting it on youtube for free before sharing it because it feels like the things he touches on and how he explains them, even paid classes probably couldn’t get right. He has so many videos on different markets and how to read them just apply them to the type of trader you are. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcjyImdSWDTCGCa7G24faIQ
Routine ( final topic on this post) So every week I try to keep a basic routine of forex and ways to practice. I try to wake up early as I’m on the Pacific Coast so I get up 2 hours early before I have to head to work. 20-30 mins of this time I do something related to forex education. The rest of the time I gather my foundation for the week and arrange goals / meditate/ journal. I’ll look at the charts, when I still had Babypips to finish I’d set a time and study through what I could of the course through that time. Now that I’m finished I’ll either check this sub, watch a video/podcast or try to read something related fundamentally to trading or finance. (I’d like to get some more book ideas about trading and it’s psychology) So that’s one habit. You’ve got to be able to at least schedule 20-45 minutes a day to consistent study + practice time to acquire new skills. 20 minutes uninterrupted is enough. Wake up early if you have to. Then throughout the day you’ll find time to reflect or research more and soon the time will start to add up. This also works on the other extreme too. If you have alot of free time I’d say starting out 1 hour to 2 hours max is what you should dedicate to studying. Forex is a very mentally fatiguing process skill. You’ve got to let your brain recharge (need those MP potions it seems) the whole currency system is heavy and complex enough that starting from scratch you couldn’t learn everything in 24 hours straight. I’d say even a week straight wouldn’t work. It takes time and a habitual familiarity. It’s not dissimilar to learning a language. Where concepts become stacked on a foundation of understanding to be acted upon through your day to day. Even if you can name all the working parts, experience build with how much time you think in that language per day. There’s a reason I chose the word “Immersion” for my second topic. Moving along. Another part of my routine is backtesting 40-50 trades a week of my strongest system. This equates to a little under 10 trades a day. I completely journal and track profits like they were live. Some suggest using a simulator, while that is a great practice for timing entries, I’ve found just using the Metatrader 4 Desktop and using the F12 key to progress forward one tick at a time has been sufficient for my backtesting needs. Backtesting gives you an opportunity to practice way more trades in a week than live session will be able to provide. I’m using M15 - H1 intraday strategies and maybe pull off 5-6 trades a week. BUT I practice 10x that amount per week. Soon you’ll find your live performance is really only a display of how your last week backtesting went. It’s like football practice for the gameday. Now which system I test varies, like I said I’ll try my strongest, but that changes. Just grab any system you think you can pull off and backtest it. Babypips gave me my first few, then I created some ridiculous ones, but over time your experience of a system and how to get them to work for you grows by running test trades. Systems I’ve found and backtested that are online are: the “So Easy It’s Ridiculous” system and the Cowabunga System, both found on babypips and a simple google search. Easy. I know, and really a system is just supposed to make having trading decisions easier for you. But your participation and exit are equally important. Can you follow easy rules you or others make? No questions asked?
So that concludes my post. I hope in the future when I’ve backtested 1,000 trades I can post some of my personal systems I’ve followed, right now they feel to amateur to even share. I am the humble fool, so any ideas on my style or feedback on where I should head are greatly appreciated. I’m open to questions and dialogue so feel free to send a PM or comment. Hearing from other traders is the reason I even started this account to post and interact. This post and future ones I have planned are kind of a new element I wanted to try of journaling that allows me some social accountability and feedback from a community rather than all my entries being hoarded in my notebooks, so my apologies if it’s more wordy than usual on here. Thanks everyone and have fun!
-AP
TL:DR Just browse over the bold sections
submitted by AzathothsPips to Forex [link] [comments]

Beginners start here

Hey everyone. A while back I made the decision to moderate this subreddit because I was once in your shoes. I honestly did not know where to begin. I would type in “daytrading” in google and come up with so many companies trying to sell me the dream. “Make $$$ while you sleep!” “Look at how much I made today!!” etc. I wanted to make this post to first give new people a place where to start and to even offer some resources that can get you started in the right direction. If I have anything else to add I will add it here.
  1. Open up a papertrading account with Think or Swim. It is free and you can get live data just by requesting it from support. All you have to do is ask them to add live data to your papertrading account. Do not pay monthly for any papertrading account. There are a lot of free videos out there that can help you get started with Think or Swim. The program looks complicated at first but it is very powerful. I spent a few days with the program and at the end of the week I was fairly comfortable with understanding where everything was. I have never had a 60-day limit with my papertrading account by the way. https://www.thinkorswim.com/t/pm-registration.html Start here and start taking trades! It is all fake money and will give you some insight into how the program works as well as how the markets move.
One other tip for setting up your papertrading account is to only set it up with a reasonable amount of money. I know a lot of papertrading accounts give you 100k right off the bat but realistically, how many of us are going to have that much money to start out with? Set it to something more reasonable like 10-20k if you are trading forex (or even less if all you have is 1-5k to trade with) or 25k+ if you are going to daytrade stocks only because the regulations require you to have at least 25k in your account at all times to daytrade (In this case, I would probably give yourself 30k just to be safe).
If you are looking for a stock screener, ThinkorSwim has a pretty good one. A personal favorite of mine is www.FINVIZ.com which has an awesome screener for finding different chart patterns and conditions (such as prices crossing above 20 bar EMA, trending up, etc)
Think or Swim has stocks, forex, futures, and options. Options are an entirely different beast all together but stocks, forex, and futures are all "yes-no" type of trading while options give you a little more leeway with your mistakes. If you are interested in learning about options, message me and I can help guide you with the right direction and best resources I used to learn options.
EDIT: Due to the amount of PM's I was getting, I have decided to post the options course I started with here https://www.udemy.com/learn-options-trading-courses/ You shouldn't pay more than 10 bucks for it as Udemy does a ton of sales throughout the year. You can also just do a "Udemy coupon" search on google and see what you pull up. Its about 10 hours worth of content and in my opinion it is worth every penny if you are wanting to learn more about options. There are a ton of other great classes on Udemy as well for learning just about anything. Just make sure to read the reviews!
Stocks is kind of the well known market for new comers but I would argue that Forex can also just as easily be traded by a newcomer. Also the benefit of trading Forex is that there is no commission off the bat. Most brokers will charge what is called a spread of some number of pips that you are essentially paying back.
Futures trade in ticks and each tick nets you a gain of some amount or a loss of some amount so I do not suggest any new person to jump into futures until you understand the way markets work. Futures charge commission on each contract you buy or sell. It can be sort of related to Forex since a tick and a pip are essentially the same.
The huge benefit to trading Futures and Forex is that there is NO pattern day trading rule. This means you can buy and sell as many times as you want without being flagged for not having 25k in your account.
  1. Tradimo is a great resource for getting your feet wet with technical analysis. It is free and shows you the ropes with how you can start looking at prices and charts: https://learn.tradimo.com/courses
  2. If there is ever a company you want to pay to help you learn, please do your research first. Type in the company’s name along with “review” at the end of your search and make your educated decision off of that. A lot of these companies have amazing advertising but will never teach you the right way to trade. A lot of them are scams too. I read that there was one trading system which the guy had the secrets of the “code of trading” and only he knew the code but would sell it to you for hundreds of dollars. So many people come into trading with high expectations that if I just pay this company to teach me, I can be like them when in reality that may never happen. Always look at their testimonials with a grain of salt. Read the reviews just like you would on amazon for buying a product. I also like to type in the company's name and add "scam" at the end to see if I get any hits on that. Read the good reviews but also the bad to understand the bigger picture here. Very few will actually teach you how to trade. Also, Reddit is a great place to read up on things like this too. Just add "Reddit" at the end of your search and read up on other users reviews.
Investimonials is also a good place to use as well (but do not use it as your only review source!!! Fake reviews are everywhere) http://www.investimonials.com So before you drop that 1-2k on a course, make sure you do your homework. Don't be fooled by smooth advertising.
  1. A high probability indicator or a holy grail strategy is not out there. If it was, everyone would be using it and making money. And if there does happen to be one, do you really think anyone will want to share it? The only way to get good at trading is to be able to read the charts and read where prices are going. This is through support and resistance and understanding channels. I cannot recommend Mack’s price action YouTube channel enough. https://www.youtube.com/usePATsTrading I am a firm believer that price action is the basis for understanding price movement. Reading an indicator may help but you should not rely on solely indicators to guide you with trading as they may give you a signal to buy when you are at a major resistance level or sell when you are at a major support, both of which could burn you.
  2. My only other advice is to look into markets that let you maximize profits. For some, it is not possible to buy 1000 shares of Apple. While trading low priced stocks lets you buy hundreds and maybe even thousands of shares at once, those stocks are too unpredictable because they can be influenced by individuals who do what is called a "pump and dump" schemes. Plus they can be difficult to read as far as what they are going to be doing next (going up or going down). My recommendation (and it is only my recommendation so only use this as guidance to make your own decision) would be to look into trading forex if you do not have a lot to start out with as some brokers (like FXCM) allow you to buy "micro" lots which let you invest as little as 100 dollars in some cases and have a much better chance of working in your favor due to the amount of people trading the same instrument. Note: There are some discussions about forex market makers adjusting the markets so you get stopped out prematurely. While I have not experienced this, it could theoretically happen? So if you do decide to trade Forex make sure you pick your broker carefully and again read the reviews!
EDIT: I have read that what I mentioned above about Forex is outdated and the brokers are under stricter regulations. Do your own investigation and do not let what I said steer you away from trading forex if you really want to. The big Forex brokers you are able to open an account with in the US are FXCM, Oanda, and Forex.com. You have a lot more options if you are in another country.
EDIT 2: Well it looks like FXCM may get banned from having clients in the US. Apparently they took some trades against their clients to profit on their end and have been using clients accounts to fund their extra expenses. Tread on your own risk.
  1. Above all, do not invest money that you are not willing to lose. I cannot emphasize this enough. Work on a simulator until you feel that your strategy works. This means putting in the time to sit down and analyze every trade you took which worked as well as the ones that didn't work. You need to go back over your mistakes and review why your trade did not work the way you thought it would. Was it because you bought at a high and sold at a low? Was it because you bought at a major resistance level thinking the stock would still go up? Was it because you were impulsive and entered in too early? Was it because you were too slow and entered in too late? This is the most important part about learning how to trade. Putting in the time and work to analyze what you did right and what you did wrong. You will never get better if you do not do this.
  2. Consider subscribing to a free daily financial newsletter such as The Morning Brew. It’s a free subscription that is delivered Monday through Friday to your email before the markets open around 5-6 am central time. It summarizes the big financial topics of the morning in short easy to read sections that you can read over a cup of brew.
I wouldn’t say this is essential for daytrading but it’s nice to read if you are wanting to stay up to date on the financial markets as they will write about companies and stocks to look out for. It’s also not spammy or filled with ads though there are one or two that are listed as “sponsored”. They don’t typically put out a weekend read but instead send it M-F.
https://www.morningbrew.com/?kid=08944ba0
I want to make this subreddit not only as a resource for newcomers but also for those who wish to improve their skills with learning how to day trade. I do not want this subreddit to become spam and companies trying to sell dreams. We all need to keep a realistic vision on what learning the market entails because this is a journey. No one becomes a doctor in a day or even a week and you should expect the same becoming a trader. Making consistent money in the markets can be very challenging and most wont ever make it, but it can be very satisfying once things start to click and you can live a very different life if this ever happens.
submitted by KingPrudien to Daytrading [link] [comments]

The Easiest Forex STRATEGY! You must watch! 🙄 - YouTube Pullback Forex Trading Strategy: Following Momentum! - YouTube How To Trade Pullbacks In Forex Effectively (step-by-step strategy in EUR/USD) Pullback trading: How to trade pullbacks like a pro - YouTube The 1 Minute Scalping Strategy (Pullback Mode On) Forex Trading Pullback Strategy by Darko Deep Pullback trading strategy 5 Pullback Trading Strategies - YouTube Die 79% Pullback Pattern Strategie  Tradimo Master The PULLBACK TRADE (3 Strategies That Make BANK In ...

Trading is easy, but people make it hard. I know this because, just like you are probably doing, I used to make trading very hard on myself. When I first started trading about 15 years ago, it felt like I was constantly on the wrong side of the market. As soon as I entered a position, it was as if someone was inside my computer, waiting to push price in the other direction. That is why you need to give your stop loss more breathing room if you choose such a pullback strategy. Pullback 5: Fibonacci. I am fascinated by how well the Fibonacci levels work in financial markets and we can use this phenomenon as pullback traders as well. For that, you wait for a new emerging trend and then draw your A-B Fibonacci tool from the trend origin to the end of the trend wave ... The idea of this article wasn’t to give you the “one-size-fits-all” trading strategy that many others will. It was more or less an attempt to open your eyes to the various possibilities that can form a good pullback strategy. In fact, I encourage you to try all of these on a demo account and see what works out the best for you. Was ist Forex-Trading? Die Vorteile des CFD-Handels. Wie Sie uns erreichen. Unsere deutschsprachigen Mitarbeiter stehen Ihnen Montag bis Freitag zwischen 08:15 und 22:15 Uhr MEZ zur Verfügung. Kunden: E-Mail: [email protected] Telefon: 0800 181 8831. Interessenten: E-Mail: [email protected] Telefon: 0800 664 84 54. International: E-Mail: [email protected] Telefon: +49 (0)694 27 299 ... Why trading pull backs is so profitable, is because markets ebb and flow, and a pull back helps you to refine your entry point so that you are entering at or close to the turning point between the ebb and flow (again, this is not top or bottom picking because we are not trying to predict a trend change).. You won’t always get it exactly right, but this Trend Following strategy is highly ... Pullback Trading Strategy Rule – Buying Opportunities. The power and the secret of the pullback trading strategy are all contained by the fact that we’re aiming to trade in the direction of the trend by entering on a pullback. Trading pullbacks in trends offer you the opportunity to lower your risk while maximizing your profits. Obviously, in order to profit from trading pullbacks, we ... Crossover Pullback Forex Trading Strategy is a combination of Metatrader 4 (MT4) indicator(s) and template. The essence of this forex system is to transform the accumulated history data and trading signals. Crossover Pullback Forex Trading Strategy provides an opportunity to detect various peculiarities and patterns in price dynamics which are invisible to the naked eye. Based on this ... 3-Bar Pullback Forex Trading Strategy. The 3-Bar pullback forex trading strategy is an fx trading strategy that is easy to identify by almost anyone. It forms a series of three consecutive bearish or bullish bars for bullish and bearish pullback respectively. The strategy is easy to adopt by newbies and advanced traders alike. Chart Setup. MetaTrader4 Indicators: 123ForexPatterns.ex4 (default ... Pullback Forex Trading Strategies. There are many forex trading strategies that use the pullback trading technique and I’m going to list a few that are on this site: floor traders method; 200 Pips Daily Chart Forex Trading Strategy With 3 EMAs; 20 SMA with RSI forex trading strategy Best Trend Trading Strategy; 20 ema bounce forex trading strategy; fibonacci forex trading strategy with ... For any pullback trading strategy, tracking the market bias is critical. Get the trend correct, and you will enjoy much greater success with pullback setups. If you are confident that the market is trending, why can’t you just enter the market at any point? It sounds reasonable as the market is on our side in any case. Yes, you can. But you will likely need a wide stop-loss to account for ...

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The Easiest Forex STRATEGY! You must watch! 🙄 - YouTube

The advantage of trading pullback is… You can buy low sell high — giving you favorable risk to reward. But… It’s not as easy as it seems, right? Because you’... In this video, Darko will show you exactly how we trade a Forex pullback. This is a strategy that we have used in the Coach’s Corner for many years, and an approach that allows us to take on ... Pull Back Swing Trading Strategy I The Only Way To Trade Stocks and E-Mini Retracement. - Duration: 10:45. Market Geeks 80,088 views #forex #forexlifestyle #forextrader Want to join my VIP group? Get my signals, education, and live chat! Link to join: https://tradernickfx.com/ // SOCIAL FR... Pullback trading: How to trade pullbacks like a pro - Duration: 14:10. ... Master The PULLBACK TRADE (3 Strategies That Make BANK In Forex!...) and in stocks - Duration: 22:28. The Trading Channel ... Forex Trading: The Pullback Trade Mastery Lesson Part 2 - https://thetradingchannel.org/pullbacklesson2VIP EAP Mentorship Program - https://eaptrainingprogram.c... READ THE MANIFESTO — https://1percentfxmanifesto.com JOIN THE ACADEMY — https://1percentfxacademy.com Hey! In today’s video I will show you why how to trade pullbacks in forex effectively ... Nutze ein Pullback als Katapult zu deinen Gewinnen Wenn man mit dem Trend traden will, ist es eine sehr profitable Vorgehensweise, auf Pullbacks – vorübergehende Gegenbewegungen – für den ... My live trading room, weekly trade alerts and premium courses: https://www.tradeciety.com/masterclass/ Join our premium courses for free (terms and condi... The 4 forex strategies that every trader should know ! 🚨🚨Trading Performance 🚨🚨 Improve Your Trading Performance at our Fundamental Trading Academy https://w...

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